If you’re looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl DFS picks, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended DraftKings lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
The Eagles are narrow favorites because, well, if it’s not a pick’em, then someone has to be the favorite. The fact is, both of these teams possess the playmakers to score in buckets.
But Philly’s defense could be the difference maker. They lead the league with 70 sacks — one of the highest season totals in NFL history. They’re yielding the fewest passing yards. Against some of the league’s best squads, their defense has shined.
This has the feel of a close Super Bowl, and as a result, this has the feel of an even split in DFS. In a six-player Showdown contest, that would mean pairing three Eagles with three Chiefs.
So the first core question is whether we can possibly bet on the relatively cheap Eagles D/ST. Could they be a not-so-sneaky 10+ point play? Or will the more experienced Chiefs — the league’s No. 1 scoring offense — find ways to break through, thus rendering Philly’s D/ST a low-ceiling, low-floor option (and too low to include in this lineup)?
That would compel us to look elsewhere. And “elsewhere” is where things get a little more difficult. KC has surrendered the NFL’s most passing scores. We could opt for a pass-heavy Eagles attack featuring Jalen Hurts and two of his top three pass-catchers. Or we might put our faith in a run-heavy approach featuring Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and/or Boston Scott.
Sanders would be fairly safe but needs to score to be useful in DFS. Gainwell is cheaper and riskier, though with comparable upsides. Scott is the ultimate dart throw.
As we consider DFS options, my thoughts return continually to non-TD upside. Where will chunk yards come from? Because I don’t believe Sanders, Gainwell, and Scott can take over this game.
I believe the Chiefs will try to force Hurts to win through the air because it poses more uncertainty for a still-developing Eagles passing attack. And if Philly can break through in the passing game, it could lead to monster DFS numbers.
Kansas City fosters unusually challenging DFS decisions. Sure, there’s Patrick Mahomes. Clear 25+ point upside at a premium expense. Bypass him at our own risk.
The same can be said for all-world tight end Travis Kelce. Similarly costly. 20+ point upside. If Mahomes gets going, presumably, Kelce will figure prominently.
But we can’t realistically afford three great Eagles and two great Chiefs. Something has to give. Pairing Mahomes and Kelce would force us to reconsider our Eagles strategy and dig deep on an uber-cheap flier who might not even secure 3+ points.
MORE: Pro Football Network’s Super Bowl 57 Picks
Beyond Kelce and (usually) Isiah Pacheco, this is a spread-the-ball offense. Any of six to eight other guys realistically could crack 50 total yards, including Jerick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and even Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Justin Watson.
The impending return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire muddles matters further. The former bell cow might not earn a touch, or head coach Andy Reid could employ a hot-hand backfield, making this three-headed RB corps a true DFS crapshoot.
As it stands, Mahomes and Kelce are clearly the safest options. And including them would require us to make compromises elsewhere. Are we willing to bet on this fearsome duo that is enjoying its third Super Bowl appearance in the past four seasons?
Top DraftKings DFS Picks for Super Bowl 57
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($16,800)
We could put Hurts or Mahomes in the Captain slot without too much overthinking. But I prefer Hurts in his Super Bowl debut, largely because his running prowess elevates his ceiling to 40+ points.
Sounds a bit farfetched? Maybe. But he’s hit 37+ three times this season. Interestingly, he averaged only 43 rushing yards in each of those contests. Yet he also averaged two rushing scores, and that proved to be the difference. If he’s the go-to option near the goal line on Sunday, then he could dominate statistically like few Super Bowl QBs have.
Flex: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($11,000)
Of course. Now, it’s important to note that Mahomes has been banged up during these playoffs and hasn’t looked quite like his former self. This translates to DFS, as he cleared 24 points in eight of his first 10 contests this season but has exceeded 24 only three times since.
(In fairness, he came close to 24 twice. But the point is, he’s been more “great” than “superstar” in recent weeks.)
Still, it’s hard to bet against him, despite his steep price. And I’m banking on at least one rushing score with a second title within grasp.
Flex: WR A.J. Brown, Eagles ($9,200)
We cannot afford one of the Eagles’ two best wideouts, plus Kelce. So a decision has to be made. This lineup assumes Philly’s defense will throw everything at Kelce, forcing Mahomes to win with secondary options.
This opens the door in DFS for a major A.J. Brown investment, on par with the Eagles’ major offseason investment in a true No. 1 WR to help lift them over the top. I have little doubt Hurts will get Brown heavily involved, and it’ll take only one big play to make Brown a DFS bargain.
Flex: TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($6,400)
Valdes-Scantling is $200 cheaper. But I’m going with the receiver with better hands and comparable TD potential. Sure, Valdes-Scantling has scored in each playoff game this year. However, Goedert remains one of the best QB safety valves in the game, and I prefer his odds versus a more vulnerable Chiefs D.
Flex: WR Kadarius Toney, Chiefs ($4,400)
With $6,600 remaining, I’m recommending a pair of KC receivers with 60+ yard ceilings if things break right. Their floors are concerningly low. Yet we can’t get hung up on that with three superb-upside players and Goedert in this slate.
MORE: How To Bet on the Super Bowl
The Chiefs’ brilliant acquisition of Kadarius Toney hasn’t yet paid big dividends. But it takes only one game, on the biggest stage, to make this trade one of the most impactful midseason deals in recent memory.
Flex: WR Justin Watson, Chiefs ($2,000)
Justin Watson is the ultimate dart throw. He’s also a strong hedge alongside Toney. If the Eagles limit Kelce, then Mahomes will need to put more on other receivers’ shoulders. The absence of Mecole Hardman opens the door for Watson to get a little more run. And at nearly half the price of Skyy Moore ($3,800), he’s one of the best upside bargains.
Whatever you decide, good luck.