If you’re looking for early NFL Week 14 player props strategies, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess which players in each game have great shots at outproducing expectations or busting.
Player Props Strategies for NFL Week 14
When approaching prop bets each week, I analyze the matchups and likely game scripts before looking at the prop lines. Because prop lines sometimes skew my thinking. If Josh Allen has a line of 289.5 passing yards, then I’m trying to rationalize “over” or “under.” That’s limiting.
The best approach I’ve found is to establish a realistic range of statistical outcomes. Depending on where the prop line falls, I can then make a relatively confident bet based on what I’ve already deduced — rather than being artificially swayed by the market.
With that in mind, here are recommended bargains and busts for each Week 14 game based on my analysis of likely outcomes.
Thursday Night Football
Rams vs. Raiders. Watch out for lofty expectations surrounding Cam Akers. He’s coming off a 17-60-2 rushing line against Seattle. But the Raiders are deceptively strong against the run, yielding only 4.0 RB yards per carry. An Akers prop bet that exceeds 52.5 rushing yards seems like a trap play.
For Vegas, I like betting on the dip. Mack Hollins garnered only 35 receiving yards on nine targets last weekend. The targets are key. He’s the Raiders’ clear-cut No. 3 offensive option. I’m pouncing on anything lower than 47.5 receiving yards.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games
Bills vs. Jets
Another buy on the dip with Gabe Davis, assuming Sauce Gardner shadows Stefon Diggs. I’m predicting prop lines of roughly 3.5 catches and 41.5 yards for Davis. I’m banking on 5+ catches for 58+ yards.
For New York, Mike White has back-to-back 300-yard performances. He might hit 215 against Buffalo. Might. Predicting a brutal outing against a defense that just exposed Mac Jones on the road.
Bengals vs. Browns
Ja’Marr Chase or bust. 7+ catches for 89+ yards. Both should easily exceed his prop lines.
And I’d fade Nick Chubb on the assumption the Bengals will avenge their blowout loss to Cleveland earlier this season. The Browns sometimes go away from Chubb too soon when trailing. This could be one of those times. I’ve got him at less than 16.5 carries and less than 74.5 rushing yards.
Cowboys vs. Texans
Where do we start? Candidly, I’d go “over” on most Dallas bets, on the assumption they gain 400+ yards and win by 30+. In particular, I like Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz both exceeding three catches, with Gallup topping 52.5 yards and Schultz topping 36.5.
For Houston, fade Dameon Pierce. I can’t imagine this team will overwork him in what could be a blowout loss. Less than 15.5 rushing attempts and below 62.5 rushing yards.
Lions vs. Vikings
Detroit made it look easy against the Jags last weekend. But beware of Jamaal Williams’ inefficient running (3.8 yards per carry or worse in his last five contests). The TDs are incredible. But 43+ yards seem like a longshot.
And for Minnesota, I’m betting on a rebound performance for Adam Thielen, getting him back above 47.5 yards on more than 3.5 receptions.
Titans vs. Jaguars
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo has 30+ receiving yards in five straight games. While Derrick Henry could hit 25+ touches, I like Okonkwo catching 3+ passes for 32+ yards.
And with Jacksonville’s season on the line, I’m not hopeful about Travis Etienne Jr.’s rushing numbers against one of the league’s stingiest run defenses. He’ll probably top out at 65 yards on the ground.
Giants vs. Eagles
Daniel Bellinger is back. He’s caught an incredible 21-of-23 targets. Daniel Jones needs him more than ever. Bank on 3+ catches for 27+ yards — which might not sound like much, but for the Giants, it’s a solid showing.
For Philly, I’m betting on minimum receiving lines of 5-57 for DeVonta Smith and 6-76 for A.J. Brown. Jalen Hurts will continue to lean on both heavily as the Eagles move closer to securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Steelers vs. Ravens
A bounce-back game for George Pickens to the tune of 4+ catches for 42+ yards, and disappointment for Demarcus Robinson, who’s oscillated from great games to invisible performances for weeks. Assuming Tyler Huntley starts, I don’t trust Robinson for more than three catches for 31 yards.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games
There are three games on this docket featuring, yes, six teams. Here’s the rundown of potential prop bargains and busts.
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Latavius Murray is a bust waiting to happen for a team that’s about to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. He’s averaged 3.3 yards per carry or worse in five of his last six outings. K.C. should keep him under 14.5 rushing attempts and below 47.5 rushing yards.
For Kansas City, give me Jerick McKinnon through the air: 3+ catches for 24+ receiving yards. Patrick Mahomes will figure out how to slice through Denver’s otherwise strong defense.
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Brock Purdy passing yardage prop will be fascinating since several of his teammates are fantastic after-the-catch playmakers. I’m comfortable betting on more than 171 passing yards and would go as far as 195.
And a tough matchup for Tampa Bay after an emotional come-from-behind victory. Tom Brady passing for less than 243.5 passing yards makes sense. This past week, his prop was above 280, so we might expect his Week 14 prop to sit around 260-266.
Seahawks vs. Panthers
I’d go DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each with over 5.5 receptions and over 67.5 receiving yards. Would go as high as 7+ catches for 74+ yards each. Seattle might need to do more through the air if Kenneth Walker III has to sit.
And for Carolina, I don’t trust Sam Darnold for more than 178 passing yards, which should be well below his prop line.
Sunday Night Football
For the Chargers vs. Dolphins, I’ll take Justin Herbert over 23.5 completions for over 301.5 passing yards. The Dolphins are beatable through the air, and in what could be a high-scoring affair, Herbert might need to throw it 44+ times.
For the Dolphins, the same goes for Tua Tagovailoa. Assuming no setbacks, if Jaylen Waddle sits, I’d bet on him eclipsing 261.5 passing yards. If Waddle starts, push it to 291+.
Monday Night Football
Finally, for the Cardinals vs. Patriots, I’m not sold on James Conner establishing the run game. Betting on no more than 55 rushing yards, which should place him well below his prop line.
And keep tabs on New England rookie Tyquan Thornton, whose blistering speed hasn’t been adequately utilized. With the Patriots no longer in the driver’s seat for a postseason berth, I expect them to feature Thornton more prominently.
Good luck with all of your prop bets this week.