All signs towards the end of the season made it seem as though Derrick Henry would be on his way out of Tennessee this offseason. Henry made an emotional speech at the end of the Tennessee Titans‘ final home game of the 2023 NFL season, and with the departure of head coach Mike Vrabel, major change could be coming in Nashville.
With the factors pointing to Henry’s departure starting to mount, DraftKings Sportsbook appears to concur, placing the odds of him taking his first snap of 2024 in Tennessee at +1000. With six teams carrying equal or better odds of Henry’s first snap being with them than Tennessee, there are plenty of options for where the running back could start the 2024 season.
Let’s take a look through the current betting odds and analyze the most likely landing spots for Henry this season.
What Are the Top Landing Spots for Derrick Henry This Offseason?
Henry is arguably one of the most intriguing free agents available this offseason. While he sits at No. 38 on PFN’s list of top 100 free agents as the third-ranked RB on the list, there’s no denying the upside Henry possesses.
In an eight-year career, Henry has 9,502 rushing yards, 90 rushing touchdowns, 1,458 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. In the past six seasons, he has five 1,000-yard rushing performances and six straight years with over 1,000 total yards.
Additionally, Henry has double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of those six seasons, while leading the league in rushing attempts in four of the last five years.
However, it appears that Henry may be on the downside of his career. The past three seasons have seen his yards per attempt drop from over five yards on average down to 4.3. Last year also saw Henry average the fewest attempts and yards per game since the 2018 season.
Current projections from Spotrac put Henry in line for a one-year deal worth $10.3 million. That deal is in line with the contracts that Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley played on when under the franchise tag in 2023.
Yet, Henry hopes to get a multi-year contract, but hitting free agency at 30 years old is going to hurt his chances of getting a deal significantly beyond one or two seasons.
Baltimore Ravens (+200)
The Baltimore Ravens certainly makes sense as a potential landing spot for Henry. Their lead RB is J.K. Dobbins, who suffered a torn Achilles early in the 2023 season. Dobbins is also set to hit free agency this offseason, which is always tricky for any player coming off a major injury.
There’s also the possibility that the Ravens lose RB Gus Edwards, who is also a free agent this offseason. With rookie RB Keaton Mitchell having suffered his own knee injury, Baltimore will have some tough decisions at the position this offseason.
They may ultimately bring Dobbins or Edwards back, but they most likely will want to pair them with a veteran back who they can trust in all aspects of the game.
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The Ravens led the league in rushing attempts last season, so they could certainly benefit from a volume-based RB of Henry’s quality and pedigree. Baltimore has traditionally looked to veteran backs to supplement their offense, trying to capitalize on the falling cost of those players while still getting a high-quality option in the backfield alongside Lamar Jackson.
If you were looking to bet on Henry to Baltimore, the value at these odds is pretty slim. There are multiple permutations that could yet play out between now and March 11, when free agency opens. The Ravens could decide to roll it back with Dobbins, Edwards, and Mitchell, or the Titans could shock everyone by franchise-tagging Henry.
Philadelphia Eagles (+500)
Henry joining the Philadelphia Eagles is also a very logical link from a pure need standpoint. D’Andre Swift is a free agent, and while he was more than solid for the Eagles, he’s not a must-sign player for Philadelphia.
Additionally, Swift is also likely to be looking for a multi-year deal as he hits free agency at just 25 years of age. While he might be cheaper per season than Henry, the Eagles may decide they don’t want to make a long-term commitment to the position.
Philadelphia is entering the offseason with $20.85 million to play with, which would be more than enough to get in on the action with Henry.
In terms of betting value, the Eagles at +500 is a better option than the Ravens. Both have a realistic chance of bringing in the veteran back, but Philadelphia is giving you more than double the returns.
They may prefer to chase a younger RB if there is one available via trade, but the powerful prospect of Henry and Jalen Hurts in the same backfield must be mouthwatering to Nick Sirianni and Howie Roseman.
Dallas Cowboys (+550)
The Dallas Cowboys’ RB situation is pretty volatile with Tony Pollard set to hit free agency after playing on the franchise tag last year. Pollard failed to grasp the opportunity of leading the backfield in the way the Cowboys would have hoped, averaging just 4.0 yards per attempt compared to 5.2 and 5.5 in the previous two seasons.
Even in the passing game, Pollard’s impact was blunted as the starter. Much like Swift, Pollard is likely going to be looking for a multi-year deal. At age 26, he would have hoped to be in line for a James Conner-like deal with three years at around $10 million per year.
After last season, that seems unlikely, but there will probably be a team willing to offer Pollard a two or three-year deal worth around $6-7 million, as we saw with David Montgomery last offseason. That leaves the door very much open for Henry in Dallas.
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When the Cowboys’ run game has looked at its most effective, it was with Ezekiel Elliott in that bell-cow role and Pollard or another back working off of him as the change of pace. In Deuce Vaughn, the Cowboys may feel they have that change-of-pace RB or get one in the draft to pair with Henry.
Salary cap space could be an issue for Dallas, but we know how much Jerry Jones loves to make a splash with a big name. I prefer the betting value with the Eagles, just because the cap situation is more settled, but if Jones wants Henry, he’ll find a way to make it work.
Houston Texans (+750)
The Houston Texans’ backfield is wide open right now. Devin Singletary is a free agent, Dameon Pierce appeared to fall out of favor, and there is no obvious other option to lead them in 2024.
Houston has loads of cap space, and they’ve seen first-hand the damage Henry can cause. Putting Henry’s experience next to C.J. Stroud would make this offense interesting indeed.
I love this value for the Texans as Henry’s landing spot. Houston has the cap space for some luxury purchases and knows they have the base to challenge this season.
Getting to the final four in the AFC will have this team brimming with confidence, and Henry’s bruising style could be the perfect balancing act for an offensive play-caller who loves a first-down run.
Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Green Bay Packers (+1000)
The group containing the Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Green Bay Packers is intriguing. It doesn’t seem like Tennessee will push to bring Henry back, but we shouldn’t completely rule it out at these odds. The most realistic path I see to Henry being back in Tennessee is if there isn’t much interest in free agency and he remains unsigned later in the offseason.
With the Packers, there’s a connection between Henry and Matt LaFleur from his time as the Titans’ offensive coordinator. That 2018 season when they were together was Henry’s first 1,000-yard rushing and double-digit touchdown season. With AJ Dillon hitting free agency and Aaron Jones in the final year of his deal, Henry to Green Bay is at least intriguing.
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The Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers also make sense at this price. Harbaugh’s team was extremely run-heavy during his time in San Francisco, and he’s reunited with a run-first coordinator in Greg Roman.
Austin Ekeler is a free agent this offseason, and the Chargers may look to add a little more physicality to their run game under the Harbaugh-Roman era.
Full Odds for Henry’s First Snap in 2024
- Baltimore Ravens +200
- Philadelphia Eagles +500
- Dallas Cowboys +500
- Houston Texans +750
- Los Angeles Chargers +1000
- Tennessee Titans +1000
- Green Bay Packers +1000
- Minnesota Vikings +1200
- Miami Dolphins +1200
- Las Vegas Raiders +2500
- Kansas City Chiefs +2500
- Cincinnati Bengals +2500
- Chicago Bears +2500
- Buffalo Bills +2500
Teams not listed have odds of +5000 or longer. Odds are correct as of Feb. 15, are only available in certain markets, and are subject to change.
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