Both Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III are among the best running backs in the NFL, each leading their respective teams in rushing yards again this season. But while one back (Henry) is coming off three straight solid games, the other (Walker III) is coming off a season low in rushing yards.
Here’s the fantasy football outlook for each player for this week.
Should You Start Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker III This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, our Consensus Rankings say that Henry is the player to start. His projected 12.7 points include 59 rushing yards, two receptions, and 20 receiving yards. That projected stat line slightly outperforms the consensus projections for Walker III (12.4 points).
My ranking for these running backs aligns with the consensus, with Henry’s production over the last few weeks becoming the deciding factor. However, Walker III is facing a favorable opponent in the Commanders, which is probably a big reason why the points projections in this matchup are so close.
Fantasy Outlook for Henry This Week
Henry is coming off three straight games with 100 or more scrimmage yards, after having just two such games in his first five contests. From a rushing standpoint, Henry is averaging 91 rushing yards a game and 5.4 yards per carry over his last three games. He has a pair of touchdown runs over that span as well.
The opponent could present a challenge for Henry, because not only are the Buccaneers ranked ninth in rush defense (92.9 rush ypg allowed), but they do something Henry has seen a lot of over the years… stack the box.
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According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tampa Bay has defended a league-high 85 carries with stacked boxes (8+ defenders in the box).
Guess which player has the most carries against a stacked box? Yes, Derrick Henry (58 carries).
But if Henry was able to grind out 97 rushing yards against the Ravens (No. 8 in rush defense) in Week 6, and then go for 101 rush yards vs. the Falcons (No. 6 in total defense) the following week, the belief here is that he will continue to excel, no matter the defense stacked against him.
Fantasy Outlook for Walker III This Week
The 16 rushing yards Walker had last week were the fewest yards he’s ever had in a start, and his fewest in any game since his NFL debut in Week 2 of the 2022 season.
He is still a productive back, just a few games removed from his first 100-yard rushing effort back in Week 6 (105 yards). He is one of four players this season with at least 500 rush yards and 6+ rush TDs — the others being Raheem Mostert, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Etienne Jr.
But even that doesn’t look as impressive when you consider that Walker III has not had a rushing touchdown in three straight games.
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer projects Walker III to finish with 59 rush yards and two catches for 13 yards.
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