Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry is undoubtedly past his prime. But that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a fantasy football force.
What does his 2024 projection look like?
Derrick Henry’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 16.2
- Rushing Yards: 1,347
- Rush TDs: 13.2
- Receptions: 28
- Receiving Yards: 271
- Receiving TDs: 0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Henry This Year?
Henry is 30 years old. Obviously, you should completely ignore him because he’s 30 years old, and 30-year-old running backs very, very infrequently are even relevant, let alone RB1s.
I guess we’re done here. Don’t draft Henry.
But of course, it’s not that simple. In fact, it just may be quite the opposite.
This may sound like a cliché or a cop-out, but Henry is “built differently.” Just look at every running back in the NFL right now. Do any of them look like Henry? He’s a throwback from a bygone era. An anachronism. A man out of time. He’s also a damn good football player.
The Ravens’ signing of Henry feels very much like the team going back to a well that proved mighty fruitful five years ago. In 2018, Mark Ingram was coming off four consecutive RB1 finishes.
But in that season, his usage declined with the emergence of a young Alvin Kamara. He averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-points-per-game drop from the previous year.
The Saints jettisoned Ingram, and he signed with the Ravens. At 30 years old, Ingram averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game, finishing inside the top 12 running backs.
Here we are again five years later. Henry had been a top-five running back every year from 2019-22, averaging no fewer than 18.9 fantasy points per game. Then, in 2023, he appeared to fall off, averaging just 14.5 fantasy points per game. That’s a 4.4-point decrease from the previous year.
The Titans opted to move on, and at 30, Henry signed with the Ravens. Sound familiar?
With no disrespect to Ingram, who made an entire career out of simply being good at football, Henry is a far superior talent. While 5.0 yards per carry Henry may not be returning, a minor decrease in efficiency doesn’t really matter as long as two things are present: volume and touchdowns.
Last season, Gus Edwards scored 13 rushing touchdowns on the Ravens. Can we even quantify the difference in skill between Edwards and Henry? Unless we truly believe Henry is cooked, how can we project him for anything other than a massive year?
I have Henry projected for 15 rushing touchdowns. That seems lofty. It will probably lead the league if it comes to fruition. But this is what I truly believe will happen. If anything, 15 may look low if Henry can play a full season.
The Ravens may possess the best rushing QB since Michael Vick, but they do not like to give Lamar Jackson goal-line carries. They’ll do it if they have to, but if they can prevent him from taking those hits, they’re going to.
Henry is arguably the best short-yardage back in NFL history. If Edwards can score 13 times, so can Henry.
I have Henry at 285 carries and averaging 4.8 yards per carry. That comes out to 1,369 rushing yards.
Last year, Henry only carried the ball 280 times. A big part of his reduced volume (which still led the NFL) was the Titans not being a particularly good team.
Derrick Henry
2018
wins: 16.9 FPG
losses: 7.0 FPG2019
wins: 23.8
losses: 13.42020
wins: 23.8
losses: 12.02021
wins: 27.4
losses: 18.22022
wins: 23.3
losses: 15.92023
wins: 19.7
losses: 11.62018-2023
wins: 22.5 FPG
losses: 12.3 FPG— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
When the Titans win games, they have a positive game script. They can feed Henry more carries, resulting in more fantasy points.
Last season, the Titans led on 28% of their offensive snaps. The Ravens led on 62% of their offensive snaps. I very well may be underselling Henry’s opportunity share in this offense.
Henry projects out as my RB7. I have him ranked as my RB5. His ADP is RB9.
As you may have gathered, I am all in on the King’s reign continuing in 2024.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Derrick Henry
According to recent ADP data, Henry is being drafted towards the start of the second round as the 18th overall player, which puts him as the RB9 off the board in fantasy football drafts.
Should you draft Derrick Henry now as a RB1 in fantasy football after he signed with the Baltimore Ravens? pic.twitter.com/O99BLEPB8H
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) March 13, 2024
Assuming the Ravens’ offense continues to run the ball effectively, Henry could project as a 1,000-yard rusher and a threat to finish with 10+ TDs at this point of his career.
Will other running backs see action working alongside him in Baltimore? Yes. Just not at the same level as Spears’ workload from last season.
Since I think Henry is in a great offense catered towards his strengths, I do believe he’s a great buy at his current ADP.
