Coming into Week 14 with a 10-2 record placed the Denver Broncos squarely in the No. 1 seed conversation. With the AFC tightly stacked at the top, late‑December margins will be defined by head‑to‑head leverage, conference record, and who avoids upsets in cross‑conference games.
How Far Can the Denver Broncos Go?
Before their game against the Las Vegas Raiders, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, Denver had a 99.2% chance to make the playoffs and an 89.3% to win the AFC West.
Crucially for the top seed race, the model assigned Denver a 33.4% chance of securing the No. 1 seed, reflecting both the team’s strong current form and the difficulty distribution of the remaining schedule. Those figures align with league-wide projections, where multiple AFC contenders remain within striking distance of each other in terms of tiebreakers and wins.
The Broncos secured a dominating win against the Raiders in Week 14 and now stand at 11-2 on the season. Now they have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, a 92.6% chance to win the AFC West, and a 39.2% chance to end up as the AFC’s top seed.
The path to No. 1 starts with protecting the conference record. In the seeding matrix, AFC losses carry outsized weight; Denver’s position strengthens materially with wins over fellow AFC contenders and by minimizing intra‑conference blemishes.
Rook for six 🔥#ProBowlVote + @rjharvey07 pic.twitter.com/qNhUWlqzMA
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 7, 2025
PFSN’s Analytics’ distribution shows Denver as a favorite to secure a first‑round bye when it reaches 13 or 14 wins with clean AFC tiebreaks; the No. 2 seed becomes the modal outcome if a conference loss slips in or if another top‑seed challenger wins out with better head‑to‑head sorting.
Schedule dynamics matter. Denver’s remaining slate includes multiple AFC opponents whose results directly impact conference filters and potential common‑opponent tiebreaks.
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The practical move for the Broncos would be to win AFC games, maximize head‑to‑head leverage, and let other contenders cannibalize each other. Denver’s No. 1 seed probability reflects how often that sequence hits in simulation.
Put simply, the Broncos control their lane — continue converting against AFC opponents, and the bye remains a live, attainable outcome in Week 18.
If the Broncos sustain their current pace to 13‑4 or better while preserving tiebreaks, FPM’s outputs keep the No. 1 seed within reach and push advancement odds toward the top tier of AFC profiles. If the Broncos settle at 12 wins with a late AFC loss, the model tilts toward No. 2, where Denver still holds strong advancement probabilities but loses the bye cushion.
Here are the Broncos’ remaining fixtures:
- Week 15: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
