The Buffalo Bills will face the Denver Broncos on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Dawson Knox.
Is Dawson Knox Playing vs. the Broncos?
Knox is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Dawson Knox on Wild Card Weekend?
We are nearing the three-month anniversary since the last time Dawson Knox found paydirt, and Jan. 22 will mark two years since his last game with five receptions.
Knox is a nice veteran presence on a team that needs to be buttoned up if they are going to earn the first championship in franchise history. However, that doesn’t make him a viable fantasy option, no matter the format.
Knox’s participation rate:
- Week 14 at Rams: 81.5% snap share (29 routes)
- Week 15 at Lions: 73.5% snap share (26 routes)
- Week 16 vs. Patriots: 56.9% snap share (20 routes)
- Week 17 vs. Jets: 46.8% snap share (14 routes)
It’s never the wrong time to make the right call. Dalton Kincaid is the superior target earner, and Knox’s role is going the way of the dinosaur. There are punt options available across the board in any slate that are more worth your time.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dawson Knox’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Knox is projected to score 6.8 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 2.3 receptions for 25.5 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Broncos' Defense
The Denver Broncos finished with a 90.9 (A-) overall grade, making them the only team this season to crack the A-grade range.
The issue with Week 18 is that it can produce some skewed results, so Denver dominating the JV Kansas City Chiefs grades out extremely well and boosts their overall season-long number. Nevertheless, the Broncos also led in Defense+ virtually the entire season, making them a worthy top finisher.
Denver ended up ranking first in EPA per dropback and first in EPA per rush on defense, making this one of the more well-rounded units in recent memory. And although this team blitzed at the third-highest rate of any defense, they also generated the second-highest pressure rate without blitzing.
The Broncos were ahead of schedule in 2024, a welcome surprise season for a team that had missed the playoffs eight straight seasons. Now that the drought is over, Denver can look to building a Super Bowl contender behind Bo Nix and this elite unit.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Dawson Knox’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card TE PPR Rankings
1) Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. PIT)
2) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at LAR)
3) Zach Ertz | WAS (at TB)
4) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at BAL)
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. DEN)
6) Tucker Kraft | GB (at PHI)
7) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. GB)
8) Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. PIT)
9) Will Dissly | LAC (at HOU)
10) Tyler Higbee | LAR (vs. MIN)
11) Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. LAC)
12) Payne Durham | TB (vs. WAS)
13) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. DEN)
14) Cade Otton | TB (vs. WAS)
15) Stone Smartt | LAC (at HOU)
16) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. GB)
17) Luke Musgrave | GB (at PHI)
18) Darnell Washington | PIT (at BAL)
19) Josh Oliver | MIN (at LAR)
20) Lucas Krull | DEN (at BUF)
21) Cade Stover | HOU (vs. LAC)
22) Hayden Hurst | LAC (at HOU)
23) Nate Adkins | DEN (at BUF)
24) Colby Parkinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
25) Devin Culp | TB (vs. WAS)
26) John Bates | WAS (at TB)
27) Adam Trautman | DEN (at BUF)
28) Tucker Fisk | LAC (at HOU)
29) Davis Allen | LAR (vs. MIN)
30) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at TB)
31) MyCole Pruitt | PIT (at BAL)
32) Ko Kieft | TB (vs. WAS)
33) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. GB)
34) Johnny Mundt | MIN (at LAR)
35) Connor Heyward | PIT (at BAL)
Broncos at Bills Trends and Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: Bo Nix got this team to 10 wins. Their last double-digit win season came in 2015, a season that ended with a Super Bowl.
QB: Bo Nix made NFL history as the first QB with 3+ TD passes and 75% complete in four games as a rookie. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four such games in both 2012 and 2013).
Offense: Since Week 11, the Broncos have been the third-highest scoring team in the league (32.6 PPG).
Defense: The Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday, their first win this season in a game in which they didn’t force a turnover (lost the previous four).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (two seasons prior: four touchdowns on 207 targets).
Betting: Over the past two months, the Broncos have two losses on normal-to-extended rest – an overtime loss to Joe Burrow and a two-point loss to Patrick Mahomes (GW 35-yard FGA was blocked at the buzzer).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have made the postseason in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott (he was hired with the franchise on a 17-year playoff drought).
QB: This is the sixth straight season in which Josh Allen is playing on Wild Card Weekend – he’s completed at least 70% of his passes in three of his past four, with multiple TD tosses in each of those contests (one touchdown pass for every 13.5 attempts across those four contests).
Offense: The first 30-30 team in NFL history (passing and rushing touchdowns). Balance is good until it’s not – only twice in NFL history has a team with 30+ rush TDs won their conference (2022 Eagles and 1983 Commanders).
Defense: Excluding Week 18, when most of the starters were very limited, if not out altogether, the Buffalo defensive trends on third down are concerning.
- Weeks 6-13: 36.5%
- Weeks 14-17: 57.1% converted
Fantasy: Remove the outlier shootout game against the Rams in Week 14 and Amari Cooper has been targeted on just 15.4% of his routes as a member of the Bills (Weeks 1-6 with Cleveland: 22.8%).
Betting: The Bills went 5-3 ATS at home with overs going 6-2, a change of pace from their 4-5 ATS mark and 3-6 overs record a season ago.