Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku is coming off the best season of his career and his second TE1 finish. With a hopefully improved Deshaun Watson at QB, Njoku’s ceiling is even higher this year. Should fantasy football managers draft Njoku at his ADP in 2023?
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David Njoku’s Fantasy Outlook For the 2023 NFL Season
It feels like the fantasy community has been hyping up Njoku for the past half-decade. That’s because they have. Still just 27 years old, Njoku is somehow entering his seventh professional season.
It’s rare that a tight end, or any player for that matter, puts together a career year in Year 7. At this point, players typically are who they are.
Through six seasons, Njoku has just one season with double-digit PPR fantasy points per game and one top-eig finish. Both of those things occurred last year. Outside of his 10.1 ppg last year and 9.6 ppg in 2018, Njoku hasn’t even been remotely fantasy relevant. His third-best season was 6.7 ppg in 2021.
But there are reasons for optimism, including the idea that Njoku can continue to improve on his 2022 usage. His 83.5% snap share was a career-high, as was his 18.6% target share and 1.74 yards per route run. Njoku did this with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
This season, the Browns project to be much better offensively. Watson should be better than he was last year and better than Brissett was, too.
On the other side of the coin, Njoku is facing increased target competition. According to Inside Edge, Njoku had 13 first-down receptions on first down last season. That means he was frequently being targeted on first downs and was efficient with those targets. He could very easily lose some of those looks this season with the Browns’ wide receiver additions.
Last season, Cleveland had Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. This year, the Browns signed Elijah Moore and spent a Day 2 pick on Cedric Tillman. While I don’t anticipate Tillman making an immediate impact, he’s still another pass catcher. With DPJ still around, Njoku could potentially be fourth in the target hierarchy.
Is Njoku a Good Fantasy Pick?
Njoku’s ADP sits at TE10, No. 94 overall. That’s where we have him in the PFN consensus rankings as well. I am slightly above that at TE9, but that difference is negligible.
Njoku is fairly priced. However, whether you draft him comes down to general draft philosophy. He’s a fine mid-round tight end. I just don’t like to draft mid-round tight ends.
Even if Njoku does perform even better than last year, he’s unlikely to do much better than 11-12 ppg. I’m confident I can stream 10 ppg. If I don’t draft Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, my plan at tight end is to just wait until the last couple of rounds. As a result, I won’t be taking Njoku unless he falls well below ADP.
