Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams has spent seven straight years as a fantasy WR1. Now 30 years old and playing with his third different quarterback in three years, can Adams maintain his status as an elite WR1? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Davante Adams’ Fantasy Outlook
You don’t need anyone to tell you that Adams is really good at football. He’s averaged no lower than 19.7 PPR fantasy points per game in four of the past five seasons and finished no lower than WR6 over that span. In 2018, 2020, and 2021, he was the WR1 or WR2.
Last season was a “down” year for Adams. All he did was average 19.7 ppg and finish as the WR5. As it turns out, while Aaron Rodgers was undoubtedly great for Adams’ fantasy production, he was not just a product of Rodgers. Playing with Derek Carr, Adams was his usual elite WR1 self.
Adams led the NFL with a 32.6% target share. He was also top five in snap share, route participation rate, and targets per route run rate. By every measure, Adams remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
This offseason, Carr took his talents to the New Orleans Saints. To replace him, the Raiders signed former San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. As a result of this move, there seems to be a bit of an aura of pessimism surrounding Adams’ fantasy value this season.
I would say I’m not quite sure why, but I have an idea. Garoppolo just isn’t liked. If you pick out the right metrics, you can paint a very negative image of Garoppolo. However, the reality is Garoppolo isn’t that much worse than Carr. For my money, it’s a lateral move. We know Adams could produce with Carr. Therefore, I see no reason why he can’t produce with Garoppolo.
The guy was even able to post a 34.3-point effort against the 49ers’ top-tier defense with Jarrett Stidham under center. Suffice it to say I am not concerned about the quarterback change.
If anything, the Raiders’ offseason moves should make fantasy managers more bullish on Adams. The team traded away Darren Waller, the clear second option in this passing game. While Jakobi Meyers is a solid acquisition, he is not commanding anywhere near the target share that Waller did at his peak.
Regardless, there are only a handful of receivers in existence that would even threaten to take targets away from Adams. None of them are on the Raiders.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Adams at His ADP?
My projections have Adams once again being a dominant alpha WR1. I have him catching 112 passes for 1,616 yards and 11.9 touchdowns. That comes out to 20.0 ppg and a WR6 finish. So, essentially, he will be what he’s been for the past half-decade.
Yet, Adams’ ADP is WR8, No. 15 overall. Initially, I had Adams as my WR6. However, I have since lowered him to WR8 because I view CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown as safer options with similar upside. That’s not to say Adams is a risky pick, but if something were to happen to Garoppolo, the Raiders would instantly be the worst team in football. I could see a scenario where Adams just mails it in due to a losing season.
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At the top of rankings, we really are splitting hairs for the most part. I just have slightly more concerns with Adams than the two I moved him behind.
With that said, Adams can be drafted lower than he’s finished at any point since 2017. Even if my projections prove overly lofty, and he falls short across the board, I just can’t see him averaging fewer than 16.0 ppg. At a WR8 price tag, Adams only needs to get to 16-17 ppg to justify it.
