As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Dameon Pierce.
Dameon Pierce’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
The 2022 season was all negative for the Houston Texans, but they appeared to hit at least a double with their rookie fourth-round running back, Dameon Pierce.
As a rookie, Pierce played behind Rex Burkhead for all of one game before being anointed the starter. It’s not easy for running backs to excel on bad offenses, and yet, Pierce did it as a Day 3 pick, which is truly impressive.
In 13 games, Pierce ran for 939 yards and five touchdowns. He even tacked on a very respectable 9.4% target share. And he didn’t get there purely on volume.
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Pierce was about as efficient as you could expect from a running back in his offensive situation. His 27% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate and 2.87 yards created per touch were inside the top 25.
By all accounts, Pierce had a successful rookie season. In my eyes, he certainly did enough to stake his claim to be the Texans’ RB of the future. Of course, we’ve seen this story play out before with Day 3 picks. It doesn’t typically end well.
This is where fantasy managers have to make a decision. Clear starting running backs are very valuable. Pierce commanded a 74% opportunity share as a rookie. That mark was sixth in the NFL. This is the type of player you want, especially given the likelihood of this offense getting better once they figure out the QB situation.
Dameon Pierce’s Fantasy Ranking
In the right environment, Pierce could be an RB2. In dynasty, we want to bet on talent. Pierce appears to have it, but does he have enough of it to overcome his draft capital?
We’ve seen guys like Phillip Lindsay, Tre Mason, and Michael Carter post impressive rookie years. Yet, they were summarily cast aside for superior prospects with higher draft capital.
Given the Texans’ team needs, it’s exceedingly unlikely they draft or bring in any serious challenger to Pierce in 2023. That guarantees him at least one more season as the clear lead back. But there really are no guarantees beyond that. It makes him riskier than his age and rookie performance would suggest.
While I wouldn’t necessarily call Devin Singletary a serious challenger, he’s more than just depth. Singletary has proven capable of being a three-down back and handling a large percentage of the snaps.
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He’s not going to take Pierce’s job, but given that Singletary isn’t much of a pass catcher, his role would be the same as Pierce’s.
Singletary will operate as Pierce’s primary backup, but it remains to be seen how involved he’ll be. Even 4-6 carries a game would take a decent chunk out of Pierce’s fantasy value.
For now, Pierce has to be viewed as a top-24 dynasty RB. We currently have him ranked as our RB20 (No. 61 overall) in our dynasty Superflex ratings. I wouldn’t fault anyone for selecting him at cost in dynasty startup drafts.
While Pierce is only 23 years old and has a very desirable role, I just caution fantasy managers to tread carefully with Day 3 running backs, in general. If you can move Pierce for more certainty, I wouldn’t be opposed.