The Buffalo Bills will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Dalton Kincaid.
Is Dalton Kincaid Playing in Week 13?
Kincaid did not practice all week as he battles an ongoing knee injury. He was formally declared out on the final injury report and will not face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.
Kincaid went down just before halftime of the Bills’ Week 10 win over the Colts. While he initially returned to that game, he departed again after a few snaps. Kincaid didn’t practice leading up to Week 11 and then missed the Bills’ game against the Chiefs.
Buffalo had a bye in Week 12, so it’s worrisome that Kincaid still hasn’t made it back to practice. With Kincaid sidelined in Week 11, fellow Bills TE Dawson Knox posted his best game of the season, hauling in four catches for 40 yards while finishing as fantasy’s TE18.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook
A knee injury resulted in Dalton Kincaid missing the Week 11 win over the Chiefs, but with the bye week to rehab, the hope is that he will be on the field Sunday night.
Kincaid’s route tree has been opened up a bit this season (aDOT up 17.9% from his encouraging rookie season), but that has created a dip in efficiency that has submarined his value (one finish inside the top 10 this season).
- 2023: 80.2% catch rate
- 2024: 40.7% catch rate
Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) missed last week’s game against the Packers. If he were to sit out again, that would result in me shifting Kincaid up a few spots in my rankings. As it is, he’s a fringe TE1 more because of my faith in this offense than anything Kincaid has done to earn our trust (yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game).
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 13
Kincaid is projected to score 0 points.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.Â
Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
