The Washington Commanders hit the jackpot by selecting Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The quarterback completely changed the franchise and took them to their first NFC Championship Game in 33 years, raising the fanbase’s expectations significantly for the 2025 NFL season.
But they may be up for yet another same-old disappointing season in 2025, and one analyst predicts that Washington will fail to win 10 games after their 12-win 2024 campaign.
Commanders Predicted To Win Less Than 10 Games in 2025
Daniels and the Commanders won 12 games this past season and pulled off a huge upset in the Divisional Round against the Detroit Lions. The NFC East team’s quarterback is already viewed as one of the best players at his position (2024 QB+ grade: 85.3, ninth in the NFL), and the future looks bright in Washington.
However, PFSN’s Kyle Soppe boldly predicted that their 2025 season will not be as bright as their last and that they will fail to win 10 games. While the Commanders ranked an impressive sixth in PFSN’s Offense+ metric, they led for less than 57.5% of their offensive snaps; per Soppe, it’s not a good sign for their next campaign.
“Washington was the ninth team in the 17-game regular season era to win 11+ games despite holding the lead for under 57.5% of its offensive snaps, and unless Jayden Daniels is ready to be a perennial MVP contender, that paints an ominous picture for 2025.
“Of the other eight teams on the list, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes accounted for two of them. They combined to win 28 of 34 games (82.4%) in the preceding season, a rate that is obviously phenomenal. The other six? They held a 43-59 record (42.2%) in their encore season.
“Daniels was great in his first season, but is he on that Allen/Mahomes level already? Maybe, but if he’s not there quite yet, Washington could regress in the standings in a meaningful way.”
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Another contributing factor to the Commanders’ regression in 2025 could be their struggling defense, which ranked 17th in the Defense+ metric with a C grade in the regular season and D+ in playoffs.
However, it’s tough to judge Dan Quinn’s unit too harshly since this was supposed to be a rebuilding season. The Commanders are projected to have the third-most cap space in the league next season, and Quinn will have a perfect opportunity to revamp this unit. His track record of excellence as the Dallas Cowboys’ defensive coordinator suggests that the Commanders should have a defense more capable of complementing Daniels in 2025.
Jayden Daniels has now won the Heisman Trophy and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in back-to-back years. 🙌pic.twitter.com/9R3v4NDKuE
— PFSN (@PFN365) February 7, 2025
But all eyes will be on Daniels and, more importantly, whether he can avoid a sophomore slump like the one we saw from C.J. Stroud in 2024. If he can build on what was arguably the best rookie season ever from a quarterback, the Commanders will be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.