The Washington Commanders notched their fourth win of the 2025 season in Week 15. They took down the New York Giants and are building momentum heading into next season.
After making the NFC Championship in 2024, the Commanders have dealt with many injuries to Jayden Daniels and find themselves in mock draft season already. What are the Commanders’ chances of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
What Are the Commanders’ Chances of Earning the No. 1 Overall Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
According to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter, the Commanders have only a 0.1% chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
The Commanders have the fifth-highest chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, behind the Las Vegas Raiders, the New York Giants, the Tennessee Titans, and the Cleveland Browns. 30.5% chance.
There are four teams with over a 10% chance of earning the first overall pick at this stage: The Raiders (2-11) with a 30.5% chance, the Giants (2-11) with a 23.6% chance, the Tennessee Titans (2-11) with a 16% chance, and the Cleveland Browns (3-10) with a 10.2% chance.
If the current winning likelihood percentages for the final four weeks hold, Washington would finish with a record of 4-13 — a record that would undoubtedly lock them into the top-6, but isn’t likely to win them the first overall pick.
MORE:Â 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks in Round 1
If the Commanders enter a tie with more than one team for the first overall pick, the first applied tiebreaker will be win-loss-tie record against common opponents. The next applied tiebreaker will be the strength of victory in all games.
Past that, the remaining tiebreakers would be combined ranking of points scored and points allowed, best net points in all games, best net touchdowns in all games, and — in a worst-case chaos scenario — a coin toss for whichever two remaining teams.
Commanders’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric ranks Washington’s remaining schedule as the 20th hardest. The Commanders have a more than 50% chance to win in just one of their final four games, according to PFSN analytics, and are listed under 40% for two others.
- Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (36.9% chance to win)
- Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys (40.8% chance to win)
- Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles (34% chance to win)
No one likes losing, even in a tank situation, but the Commanders needed to lose in Week 15 if their No. 1 overall pick hopes are to stay alive.
Washington essentially needs to lose out to secure the best chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick. Even then, three 2-11 teams would need to win at least one game to let the Commanders into a tiebreaker situation. And even then, Washington has a head-to-head win over Las Vegas that doesn’t help matters.
The Commanders’ most likely pick position is within pick No. 3 and pick No. 6 — which would still be a good position for a team in desperate need of blue-chip talent, either at EDGE or wide receiver.
Prospects like Arvell Reese, Rueben Bain Jr., and Carnell Tate could be in play — but the No. 1 overall pick would allow Washington to trade back and secure more capital after selling out for their letdown 2025 season.
