A surging Indianapolis Colts team will travel for an intradivisional matchup against the Houston Texans. In their last four games, Indianapolis is 3-1, losing only to the Buccaneers in a relatively close game. Houston owns a 2-9 record, and they’re coming off of a loss to the Jets. You can find the NFL odds along with a pick and prediction for the Colts vs. Texans below.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans pick, prediction | Week 13
- Spread: Colts -8 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Colts -380, Texans +290
- Over/Under: 45.5
Jonathan Taylor’s been one of the best running backs in the NFL, totaling 1,544 yards and 16 touchdowns on 245 carries. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry in 2021 as well. Taylor already dominated Houston once, needing only 14 carries to post 145 yards and 2 touchdowns earlier in the year.
The Texans are allowing the seventh-highest yards per carry (4.5) in the NFL this season. They tend to stay back rather than attack as a defense, blitzing only 19.3% of the time. That is the fourth-lowest rate in the entire league.
Houston doesn’t boast the talent to stop Taylor on the ground, although they can change the looks their defense gives Indianapolis. Their game plan didn’t work in a 31-3 loss to the Colts in Week 6. So, the Texans may look to sell out against the run and force Carson Wentz to beat them with his arm.
Colts vs. Texans betting trends
The Colts continue to impress against the spread (ATS) in 2021. They own a 7-5 ATS record, including 4-1 on the road. Indianapolis has consistently been undervalued on the road, as they’re beating the spread by an average of 11.6 points per game in five contests.
The Texans, on the other hand, have struggled this year, posting a 5-6 ATS record through 11 games. Houston has been better against the spread with Tyrod Taylor, although he’s just 1-2 ATS since returning from injury.
These teams are on opposite sides of the spectrum in terms of the game total. Indianapolis has found the over in a league-high 66.7% of their games. They’re also averaging a league-high 4.8 points per game over the total.
Houston, on the other hand, has posted a 4-7 over/under record. They’re averaging 3.9 points per game fewer than the Vegas total, which ranks well below average.
Colts vs. Texans prediction
Division matchups can be tricky, especially in the second game of the series. With that being said, I don’t expect Houston to revamp their entire defense. Even if they were able to, I wouldn’t expect Indianapolis to struggle behind Wentz in this matchup.
Overall, the Colts should be able to score in any way they want. The only major difference from the first game to this one is Tyrod Taylor. He should be able to move the ball far better than Houston was able to in the first matchup.
The Colts still have the edge nearly everywhere, though. This could turn into more of a shootout than the first meeting, although I don’t expect it to be overly competitive.
Colts vs. Texans Prediction: Colts 35, Texans 20