The Indianapolis Colts’ tremendous run came to a halt on Sunday, as they lost at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. Now 9-7, they need a win to ensure a spot in the playoffs. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Colts vs. Jaguars Week 18 NFL odds and make a pick and prediction.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars pick, prediction | Week 18
- Spread: Colts -15 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Colts -1000, Jaguars +650
- Over/Under: 44
Colts hit a wall in Week 17
The Colts had won six of their last seven games prior to Sunday’s loss. They went into that game as 8.5-point favorites and fluffed their lines entirely. I was certain Indianapolis would handle business, cement their place in the playoffs, and cruise through the Jaguars in Week 18.
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As it transpires, the Colts now find themselves in a must-win scenario if they want to make the postseason. Yes, they’re 15-point favorites. And yes, it’s the Jaguars. But never has the phrase “any given Sunday” been more appropriate. Indianapolis absolutely cannot mess around and allow Jacksonville into the game.
Jaguars currently hold the No. 1 pick in the draft
The Jaguars have had a season to forget. It’s not been pretty by any stretch of the imagination, and the franchise has been in the media for all the wrong reasons.
Despite having the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and landing Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars find themselves in the No. 1 spot yet again … for now.
Should the Jaguars win, there is a possibility that they could drop to the No. 2 pick. That would require a Jacksonville win and a Detroit Lions loss. Detroit plays the Green Bay Packers, but the Packers have already secured the top seed in the NFC and can rest all of their starters if they wish.
Jacksonville just needs to get through this game before addressing a whole host of issues in the offseason. Giving Lawrence a fair chance and hiring a head coach are their top priorities.
Colts vs. Jaguars betting trends
The Colts have won six of their last eight games, only dropping the game against Tampa Bay in Week 12 and last week’s defeat against the Raiders. They covered the spread in their last three in a row prior to Week 17, where they lost against the spread (ATS) and outright as favorites.
Indianapolis, despite being a dominant rushing team with an MVP-caliber talent in Jonathan Taylor, is on a four-game streak of unders. They’ve held strong opponents to less than 20 points, including the Cardinals and the Patriots. Yet, they gave up 23 in the loss to Las Vegas.
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The Jaguars are bad. They’ve lost seven in a row ATS. Despite the spread getting bigger, Jacksonville just can’t cover it. In Week 17, they were given a 17.5-point betting line in their favor against the Patriots. They lost that game by 40 points.
The Jaguars have, however, covered three overs in a row. Largely down to the team wilting and just praying for the end of the season, Jacksonville has given up a combined 106 points in those three contests. As a whole, the Jags are 4-12 ATS and 5-11 on over/unders.
Colts vs. Jaguars prediction
The Colts need this, and they’ll be looking to stamp it early and do so without any room for error. Indianapolis should dominate this game from start to finish and make absolutely sure their position in the playoffs is confirmed.
I’ll go Colts by 21+ points and the over. The only reason I’m not expecting it to be more? Once they’re up 21, they can take Taylor, Wentz, Pittman, and the others out and let them rest in the second half.
Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction: Colts 37, Jaguars 14
