The Cincinnati Bengals‘ fantasy preview tries to forecast their pass game following the bye while the San Francisco 49ers‘ fantasy outlook lends insight as to how to rank this offense moving forward.
How should fantasy football managers approach this highly-anticipated matchup?
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -5.5
- Total: 45
- Bengals implied points: 19.8
- 49ers implied points: 25.3
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: Per the Week 8 Cheat Sheet, Burrow’s top two QB finishes came in the two weeks before the Week 6 bye, and that’s great, but not all NFC West defenses are created equal. Burrow completed 60 of 81 passes with five touchdowns over those two games against the Cardinals and Seahawks — efficiency that is unlikely to be sustained in this spot.
I want to be optimistic that a healthy version of Burrow can return top-10 value regularly — but is it going to happen? We’re looking at only one plus-matchup over the next month, and with road games against the Steelers and Chiefs during the final two weeks of the fantasy postseason, I’m not so sure.
Brock Purdy: The fantasy production wasn’t there for Purdy on Monday night (272 passing yards but just one TD and two interceptions), nor was the end result (22-17 loss at Minnesota), but I actually thought he showed well for roughly 80% of the game.
Following the loss, Purdy was placed in concussion protocol, but he was able to pass through as fast as anyone we’ve seen this season and will be active. He’s a fine QB2 in formats where you can play multiple, but isn’t of interest to me in your standard format (I much prefer the C.J. Stroud’s, Jared Goff’s, and Bryce Young’s of the world this week).
Running Backs
Joe Mixon: He has been exactly what we thought James Conner would be this season: consistent usage with only marginal returns. Despite averaging 18.7 touches per game this season, Mixon has yet to finish a single week better than RB15 and only has one score on his 2023 ledger.
With no competition for work in an offense that we hope has its best games ahead of it, Mixon is going to be a lineup staple. He faces light boxes nearly 60% of the time due to the fear that Ja’Marr Chase puts on defenses, something that will guide him to better days ahead. This is obviously a tough spot, and he’s a middling RB2 for me, but should he struggle, rest assured that the Mixon manager will have a trade offer to consider!
Christian McCaffrey: Was that a compromised version of CMC last week? We weren’t positive that he’d be active against the Vikings, and all he did was handle 18 touches, rack up 96 yards, and score twice. The league has no answer for him right now, and with the way this offense operates, why would we expect that to change?
Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason: I think both are worth stashing if you have the room, given that they are a single injury away from being a fantasy asset. I prefer Mitchell over Mason, but both would be interesting options if McCaffrey were to get dinged up.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase: The skill set here is no secret, and with him on a 207-target pace, there’s simply no way around locking in Chase. Yes, it’s a tough matchup, but this month alone, we saw an alpha receiver in Amari Cooper go over 100 yards and a big athlete in Michael Wilson score twice against the Niners.
Is Chase not both of those things? There’s a lower floor in play this week than most for Chase, but the ceiling is still there, and with Burrow peppering him with targets, the mean outcome is still a positive one in all formats.
Tee Higgins: One. One top-75 finish this season. He is battling a rib injury that could continue to limit him moving forward, but he seems determined to work his way through it. With Cincy coming off of its bye, I’m cautiously optimistic that we see a reasonably healthy version of Higgins.
By no means is he a must-play in this spot, but he shouldn’t be completely dismissed with this entire offense getting a chance to get healthy. I have him ranked just behind the struggling Calvin Ridley and outside of my top 25 at the position — not a sentence I thought I’d be typing in October.
Deebo Samuel: News broke over the weekend that Samuel is dealing with a hairline fracture in his shoulder and will miss this game at the very least. The 49ers do go on their bye next week, so the prevailing hope is that Samuel will be ready to roll coming out of that (Week 10 at JAX).
Samuel had a pair of top-15 finishes at the position early, but he’s been disappointing since, likely the result of being at less than full strength. This creates an interesting buying window for managers with the ability to be patient — the 49ers are likely going to be fighting for the top seed in the NFC late into the season, putting them in position to be aggressive with their star receiver late in the fantasy season.
Brandon Aiyuk: He was heavily used in the first half before disappearing in the second half last week in a game in which San Francisco never really got comfortable. For his career, his volume and efficiency both improve when Samuel sits, trends that have him ranked as a fringe WR1 for me this week.
The upside is too great to ignore and with Purdy now set to start, you can plug in Aiyuk with the utmost confidence against an aggressive defense.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
As a result, he fell a handful of spots and is now to be considered a fine WR2. The fact of the matter is that we don’t know was a Darnold version of this offense looks like — something that subtracts from the Aiyuk floor, though I think this scheme still allows him access to a high enough ceiling to be started across the board.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: To live the Kittle experience is to love the Kittle experience. He has rotated a strong game with a dud game for six straight, and if you’re a buyer of patterns, that doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
If you’re a buyer in talent/role, Kittle deserves to be started in all spots this week. I’m confident in this offense producing value to two pass catchers consistently — that’s a pain when all three of his top options are healthy, but that’s not currently the case.
Should You Start Joe Burrow or Kirk Cousins?
I’m optimistic about Burrow moving forward, but he needs to prove his health before I start him in a brutal matchup over an option like Kirk Cousins, who is in good form.
I’m not sure Cousins records his sixth top-10 finish of the season, but I do prefer the floor that comes with him this week over that of Burrow.
Should You Start Tee Higgins or Rashee Rice?
Higgins is the WR2 on an offense that is hoping to look healthy in a tough matchup, while Rashee Rice is an ascending WR1 in an offense that is at full strength and in a great spot.
Don’t make it harder than it needs to be, and don’t hold onto your priors. Rice is the play for me until Higgins proves he is right.
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