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    Should You Start Chris Godwin or Drake London in Fantasy Football Week 16?

    Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin had an excellent Week 15, while Falcons WR Drake London struggled. Who should fantasy managers start in Week 16?

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    Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin is coming off his best game of the season last weekend with a 12-target, 10-reception, and 155-yard outing. Meanwhile, Drake London is coming off one of his worst games of the season, as he managed just three targets and two receptions for 24 receiving yards in a disappointing 9-7 defeat to the Carolina Panthers.

    Therefore, who should fantasy football managers start in Week 16? Should last week’s performance be taken into full consideration when deciding who to start? Or should they be disregarded as a one-off performance?

    Should You Start Chris Godwin or Drake London This Week?

    In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Godwin is the player to start. His projected 8.9 points include a projection of five receptions for 53 yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for London (8.7 points).

    My ranking for these wide receivers aligns with the consensus due to the fact the Buccaneers’ passing attack is more narrow and a little bit more predictable. The Falcons threw the ball 20 times last weekend to nine different receivers, while the Buccaneers threw the ball 28 times to just seven different targets.

    The other difference is that the Buccaneers are averaging over 33 passing attempts a game, while the Falcons are averaging 31 passing attempts a game. Meanwhile, Godwin has a healthy 23.9% target share, while London is garnering a 21.2% target share. Godwin is averaging over one more target per game this season and is receiving those targets from a better quarterback.

    Therefore, while it is close, Godwin has the safer floor and the higher ceiling, meaning he is the player fantasy managers should put in their lineups this week.

    Chris Godwin’s Fantasy Outlook This Week

    Godwin has a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Christmas Eve in Week 16. The Jaguars are allowing 29.6 fantasy points per game, which is the 10th most allowed in the NFL of any team coming into Week 16.

    As mentioned already, he is coming off his best game of the season in Week 14 against the Green Bay Packers. However, since finally overcoming a nagging injury, which he has continued to play through, he has seen 11 targets and then 12 targets in back-to-back games. Godwin has only seen double-digit targets just four times this season, so to see it in back-to-back games is highly encouraging.

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    It appears the Buccaneers have worked out that Mike Evans cannot be the team’s only offense in the passing game. And the Buccaneers’ passing attack has looked better in the past two games, which has seen them put up two of their three highest points totals so far this season.

    Therefore, it seems unlikely that the usage of Godwin will slow down against the Jaguars. You can pencil in Godwin to receive double-digit targets for the third game in a row. Due to the volume, Godwin will possess low-end WR2 appeal this week, with the opportunity to break into the top 15 at the position if he can find the end zone.

    Drake London’s Fantasy Outlook This Week

    London is coming off of one of his lowest target and yardage games so far this season. Despite the appalling weather conditions, the Falcons’ offense decided to share the ball around. London only had three targets, while Kyle Pitts led the team with just four targets. The remaining 13 targets were split between seven other receivers.

    And, unfortunately for London, Taylor Heinicke is returning to the lineup as the team’s starting quarterback this weekend against the Indianapolis Colts on Christmas Eve. Heinicke has only played in three games this season. In those three games, he only attempted 22 or more passes once. He has an average of 6.7 yards per attempt and has only thrown one touchdown in each of these three games.

    If Heinicke only attempts just north of 20 passes, and London maintains his 21.2% target share, that means London will project to see just four or five targets this week. That will be a difficult amount to produce a fantasy-relevant performance, especially with the downgrade in quarterback play coming his way.

    Thus, fantasy managers would be wise to sit London this week, as it is hard to see how he will manage WR3 numbers based on this low passing volume. He will need Heinicke to throw the ball over 30 times for him to be fantasy-relevant against the Colts. If you believe that will happen, then London will be in Flex consideration. However, I would suggest this is unlikely to happen.

    Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

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