After a near upset by the New York Jets last week, the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road for a second straight week, this time at Minnesota. Will this turn into a high-scoring contest? We give you the odds and let you know the best bet to make for this Chiefs-Vikings matchup.
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Chiefs vs. Vikings Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-198); Vikings (+164)
- Over/Under: 53
- Game time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Chiefs vs. Vikings Prediction
This matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, with two of the league’s top offenses battling it out. The Chiefs and Vikings each rank top 10 in the NFL in yards, with Kansas City third (393.0 YPG) and Minnesota ninth (370.8).
In addition, three of the league’s top offensive players of all time at their respective positions will be on the field in today’s game. The Chiefs feature Patrick Mahomes, who has the highest passing yards per game average in NFL history (300.8), and Travis Kelce, who ranks first all-time among tight ends with 71.4 career receiving yards per game.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have Justin Jefferson, who is No. 1 all-time in career receiving yards per game (99.4). And so far in 2023, he again leads the NFL in receiving yards with 543. Since 1970, that is the third-most receiving yards by a player through the first four games of a season.
Throwing to Jefferson is quarterback Kirk Cousins, who ranks third this season in pass attempts (157) and pass yards per game (303.5).
The Vikings issue however, is not the yards they produce, but their inability to hang on to the football. Along with a league-leading 11 giveaways this season, three of those 11 turnovers have occurred in the red zone. This is main reason why despite ranking top 10 in yards, the Vikings rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring with 22.5 PPG (17th).
On the other side, Kansas City hasn’t exactly kept a tight grip on the ball itself. The Chiefs are tied for 5th in the NFL in turnovers with eight, including seven over their last three games.
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But after getting outplayed by Zach Wilson last week — on national television, no less — Mahomes is in position to have a bounce back game of significant proportions. Last week was only the third time in his career Mahomes had multiple interceptions without throwing multiple touchdowns in a game. In the previous two occurrences, Mahomes’ following game produced seven TD passes and two INTs combined.
One key matchup in this contest is the Vikings’ blitzing defense vs. Mahomes. Minnesota has a blitz rate of at least 33.3% in all four games this season, but according the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Mahomes is 13-0 in his career when blitzed on a third or more of his dropbacks.
So these two teams can pile up the yards on offense, but can either team avoid turnover issues? While neither the Chiefs or Vikings have shown the ability to eliminate the mistakes, I’m taking a chance and assuming both teams stay cleaner in this contest.
And it’s really just the turnovers that are the main concern from keeping this game from becoming a shootout. The Chiefs no doubt came away from last week’s win less than satisfied with their performance, while at some point, the Vikings will have a game in which they purge the turnover bug.
This will be the highest-scoring game of the day. Take the over.
Best Bet: Over 53 points (-110 at DraftKings SportsBook)
