Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction, Odds, Picks For Super Bowl 57

The Behavior Bets model predicts an upset (is it really?) for Super Bowl 57. Can the Chiefs stop the run? Are the Eagles battle-tested enough?

My Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles prediction looks at the matchup of two No. 1 seeds from their respective conferences facing off in the big game. NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes will compete against an Eagles defense that has been getting plenty of hype all season. We don’t trust the hype, just the model for my Super Bowl 57 prediction.

My Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified value with the Chiefs vs. Eagles odds. The Chiefs being underdogs gives bettors an opportunity to get positive odds and make some profit, based on who we project to win the game.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds | Super Bowl 57

  • Spread
    Chiefs +1.5
  • Moneyline
    Chiefs +105
  • Over/Under
    Under 51

*Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

I went 31-11-1 during the NFL playoffs, and predicted every single game correctly, except for the fluke of an NFC Championship game. That saw me profit 295.1 units with a +182.02% return on investment.

For the season, the model is 188-91-7** on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and on props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Kansas City vs. Philadelphia prediction for Super Bowl 57.

**Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction | Super Bowl 57

There has been plenty of focus on NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes — most notably, on his ankle. That said, I don’t see it being a major factor in the outcome of this game. Not at all. I have it on good authority that his ankle is in tip-top shape and is in a much better position than it was two weeks ago for the AFC Championship Game.

On a damaged ankle against a top-three time-of-possession defense and top-five defense overall, Kansas City was absolutely impeccable, holding the ball for more than 32 minutes. Mahomes was down his top two receivers and paired with a non-existent running game. Yet, he made magic happen.

This team is battle-tested and healthier now. We can focus on Mahomes and the pass. And why wouldn’t you? He’s by far the best quarterback in football and the league MVP. To me, however, the pass should be an accessory to the larger plan.

You know K.C. will have a high likelihood of success with Mahomes’ aerial attack. There isn’t a defense that can shut it down completely, and it will likely be the focus of the Eagles’ defense, as they’ll surely pay extra attention to Travis Kelce.

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However, I expect the Chiefs to try and use a run game that absolutely bullied the Eagles when they faced off last season. K.C. ran for 200 yards on 6.3 yards per carry in that contest. Time of possession matters to Philadelphia’s offense, which we’ll touch on below. But keeping the ball away from Philly is the Chiefs’ pathway to success.

For the year, the Chiefs score .934 points per minute of possession time, and schematically, their run game matches up really well against the Eagles’ defense. For all the talk of the Eagles’ rushing offense, the Chiefs know how to get yards with their own, finishing top five in yards per carry average.

They match up well with this Philly team, and this offensive line already knows it can push the Eagles’ defensive front around at will.

In this Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction, that plays a large role, and I see the Chiefs riding a higher-volume running attack en route to a victory.

The Eagles’ Defense Is Not Battle Tested

The Eagles come into this one holding opponents to one full point scored for every 2:00+ of possession time in their last three games. That is by far the best three-game stretch by any defense this season, and around half the pace of the Chiefs’ offense.

However, those three games include two against the New York Giants and one against a San Francisco 49ers team that was on its fourth-string quarterback and couldn’t utilize the forward pass for much of the second half. Not exactly world-beaters.

Two games before that, against Dallas? Philly gave up one full point every 50 seconds of Cowboys possession time. The only team with a full season of score behavior rate (SBR) as high as the Cowboys? The Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, the Eagles have only played against four teams all year at full health who finished the year with a top 10 SBR.

In those four games, they have given up an SBR of .835 points every minute of opponent possession time. Projected for a full season, that would be third worst in the entire league.

More so, they’ve only played a single team finishing above 15th in SBR since Week 4. That game was a loss to the Dallas Cowboys, where Philly gave up 40 points. This team has not been tested, and their run through the playoffs is ample evidence of that.

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So what Eagles’ defense will we get? Their x3.3 bounce rate makes them the most inconsistent defense remaining in the playoffs. This is not the offense to be inconsistent against. This also isn’t the Giants or the 49ers, the latter of which brought football back to a time before the forward pass. The key for the Eagles is to use their elite pass rush to get Mahomes off of his game.

Yet, if Mahomes’ pass game is aided by the Chiefs’ ability to run the ball, this is where the Eagles are especially vulnerable. They give up the seventh-highest yards per carry this season at 4.7 yards per rush attempt. The last time they faced the Chiefs, using the same scheme? 6.3 yards per carry allowed.

Against the Giants in the playoffs? They surrendered 5.9 yards per rush attempt. If the Eagles allow that to happen on Sunday, they will lose. Yes, they won those other games. But those other teams are not the Chiefs, who have, by far, the best offense the Eagles have seen all season.

Not only does K.C. control the clock, but the efficiency they score with will be hard to overcome. This is not a favorable matchup for the Eagles, and I think the Chiefs run it just well enough to score 24 points in this Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction.

Jalen Hurts Needs his Arm

All is not lost for the Eagles, however, in this Super Bowl 57 prediction. The Eagles have been a force from all angles on offense. They have the second-best SBR in the conference and are not too far behind the Chiefs, averaging one full point for every 1:12 of possession time.

Not only are they scoring at a high rate, but they are giving themselves loads of opportunities by controlling the clock, finishing inside the top 10 this year.

They are eighth in the league in ball control, and their RPO and QB run game is devastating. The threat of running on every play from anywhere in the backfield has been keeping defenses on their heels all year, and allowing big passing plays down the field.

The question is: Can they survive with a limited run game? Yes. Last week, they ran it for nearly 150 yards, but that was on just a 3.4-yard per-carry average. Philly ran it 44 times last week, just the fourth time they had over 40 rushing attempts all year. Yet, it was the first time they had averaged under four yards per carry and had fewer than 200 rushing yards when rushing so frequently.

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They ran it at such a high volume due in large part to the ineffectiveness of Jalen Hurts and the passing game. Hurts missed several wide-open throws down the field in this one and has really struggled since returning from injury. In his last three games, he is completing passes at five percentage points lower than his season average.

Over every team’s last three games, the Eagles rank 18th in the league in passing yards per game. That’s not so alarming when you consider it’s the run that sets the pass up for them. Yet the reality is that they haven’t faced an opposing offense capable of taking advantage of a diminished rushing attack.

Philadelphia was 5-15 on third down against the 49ers, who were so depleted they couldn’t take advantage. Do that against the Chiefs? You lose. They threw on third down seven times and converted only three of those. Philly converted zero third downs of seven yards or longer.

Simply said, my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction comes down to whether or not the Eagles can pass it when they need to if the run is shut down.

So far, the evidence isn’t promising.

Chiefs Must Stop the Run

The Chiefs’ defense is not the juggernaut the 49ers’ defense is. They are not slouches, either. They only allow 31% of their opponents’ first downs to go for first downs, good enough for seventh in the league. They’re eighth in the league in rushing first downs allowed and eighth in the league in the percentage of yards they’ve given up to opponents being rushing yards.

Simply put,  the Chiefs are already good at the thing they need to be amazing at on Sunday. This is not negotiable either. The Chiefs cannot afford to allow the Eagles to have a big rushing day. If they do, they will lose, and maybe lose big.

K.C. has never seen the type of volume they’re likely to face on Sunday, either. They’ve seen, on average, 24 rush attempts per game. Philadelphia averages 33 attempts a game. The Chiefs will need more than just stalwart defensive tackle Chris Jones to step up.

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Frank Clark will need to be very disciplined on the edge, and linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay need to read the myriad of keys Philly will throw at them.

If they can get Philly into 3rd-and-6 or longer, they will likely win by forcing Jalen Hurts to be a passer when it matters most.

In the Behavior Bets Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction, the Chiefs do it and hold Philly to 21 points.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl 57 Prediction
Chiefs 24, Eagles 21

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