Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Russell Wilson, and Others

The last time these two teams played, despite losing 19-8, the Denver Broncos held Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to their second-lowest point total of the season. In that loss, however, if you hammered player prop bets for Mahomes and Travis Kelce, chances are you cashed. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, had his worst performance of the season, throwing for just 95 yards with two interceptions.

Will Mahomes and Kelce have monster games yet again, and will Wilson have another efficient but unspectacular performance like in their win last week? Let’s dive into our favorite Chiefs vs. Broncos player prop bets.

Top Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets To Target

Our team of betting experts gives out their favorite player prop bets for Chiefs vs. Broncos.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.

Patrick Mahomes Player Props

• Passing Yards: 275.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Pass Touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
• Pass Completions: 26.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
• Pass Attempts: 34.5 (Over -140/Under +100)
• Rushing Yards: 24.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +114/Under -145)

Broyles: Betting against Patrick Mahomes feels like death by a thousand papercuts, but hear me out. Mahomes is great, and the Chiefs may be able to toy with the Bronco’s defense, but that is all the more reason to take the Under here.

Huh? The Chiefs have evolved into one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL, committing to a running game spearheaded by second-year back Isiah Pacheco.

The Broncos are horrendous against the run, so I expect the Chiefs offense to focus a great deal of attention on running the football and grinding the Broncos’ defense into dust.

Yes, the offense will still go through Mahomes but expect the Chiefs coaching staff to take it easy on the Super Bowl MVP this week. Take the Under on Mahomes passing yards.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes under 275.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Isiah Pacheco Player Props

• Rushing Yards: 64.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Rush Attempts: 15.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
• Receiving Yards: 15.5 (Over -130/Under -105)
• Receptions: 2.5 (Over -125/Under +150)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -135
• First Touchdown Scorer: +500

Broyles: I hit on the Chiefs running game and the possibility they feature Isiah Pacheco in my last pick for Mahomes. If there is ever a game to do it, this would be the one.

Pacheco has established himself as the alpha option in the Chiefs’ backfield. The only reason he wouldn’t be able to eclipse this mark is if the Chiefs go uber-heavy on the passing game, which, to be fair, they have had a history of doing in the past. I don’t see the reason for it in this spot.

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The Chiefs should win this game by two scores, so I’ll lean into the running game playing a pivotal role.

Pick: Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Travis Kelce Player Props

• Receiving Yards: 76.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Receptions: 6.5 (Over -160/Under +124)
• Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -145
• First Touchdown Scorer: +450

Blewis: Taylor Swift’s boyfriend has been on an absolute heater in recent weeks, with 21 receptions for 303 yards over his last two games. One of those games was against the Broncos two weeks ago, when he had nine receptions for 124 yards.

Mahomes has been so efficient throwing the football to Kelce that he has completed all but two of his 33 passes. Of players with 30 or more targets this season, Kelce is second in target rate, fifth in catch rate, and fourth in completion rate over expectation.

If you think the Broncos can keep this close, Kelce should be a focal point of the Chiefs’ offense throughout the game.

Pick: Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions (-160 at DraftKings)

Russell Wilson Player Props

• Passing Yards: 206.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +200/Under -270)
• Pass Completions: 19.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Pass Attempts: 30.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
• Rushing Yards: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Blewis: For three weeks in a row, Russell Wilson has failed to throw for over 200 passing yards despite losing by 10+ points in two games. He isn’t the same player he used to be — easy to see from watching the games and the box score statistics.

In their matchup two weeks ago, Wilson threw for only 95 passing yards on 22 attempts. Even at his peak, a big chunk of Wilson’s passing yards would come from big passing plays and less from a high volume of short completions.

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This might be selling too low on him, but I see Wilson having similar struggles again today. The Chiefs’ defense is second-best in dropback success rate and third-best in EPA/play defending the pass. I can’t recommend the over for any Wilson props against top defenses like this.

Pick: Russell Wilson under 206.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Javonte Williams Player Props

• Rushing Yards: 47.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Rush Attempts: 10.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
• Receiving Yards: 14.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
• Receptions: 2.5 (Over +120/Under -150)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +155
• First Touchdown Scorer: +1000

Gallimore: For the first time this season, Javonte Williams surpassed 50% of offensive snaps played in Week 7. Coming off an ACL injury suffered last season, Williams’ conditioning might not have been up to pace as he could not stay on the field for most drives. But now, it looks like Williams is coming into top form.

In both matchups last season, Denver’s running backs fared well in the passing game and eclipsed their receiving yards totals. Here’s a look at the total production of Broncos running backs in the two games against the Chiefs last season:

• Week 14 at Denver: seven receptions for 88 yards (Mike Boone led with 2-62)
• Week 17 at Kansas City: seven receptions for 55 yards (Chase Edmonds led with 3-39)

With a snap count trending in the right direction, favorable matchup history, and a high likelihood of the Broncos chasing points with the Chiefs offense coming off its best performance, I like the upside for Williams’ production this week, specifically in the passing game.

Pick: Javonte Williams over 14.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

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