Chiefs vs. Bills Player Prop Bets: Picks Include Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Others

It's the game of the weekend, and we have you covered with our top Chiefs vs. Bills player prop bets, with picks for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and others.

The game we have been waiting all weekend for (quite frankly, two years for) is finally here. If history tells us anything, we should expect a lot of points from both the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. But with two dynamic offenses, which Chiefs vs. Bills player prop bets should you be targeting?

Top Chiefs vs. Bills Player Prop Bets

Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (-105 at DraftKings), Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Soppe: During the regular season, Rashee Rice ranked second among receivers in yards after the catch per reception, and the Bills encourage their opponents to check down (second lowest aDOT).

When on the perimeter, Rice has caught a pass on 24.1% of his routes, a rate that dwarfs that of Travis Kelce (15.3%). Kansas City’s budding star earned 35.2% of the targets last week against the Miami Dolphins and might well prove to be the skeleton key for a Chiefs team eyeing a repeat.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110 at DraftKings)

Bearman: Win or lose, Josh Allen throws picks. In 12 of his last 14 games, he has thrown at least one interception, which is absurd. I’m banking on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to force Allen into at least one poor decision.

Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Under 21.5 Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Katz: We hit on this bet last week. We’re going back to the well once more.

I understand why sportsbooks need to keep setting Stefon Diggs’ longest reception line at 20+ yards — it corresponds with Josh Allen’s passing yardage total and Diggs’ receiving yards total.

The same process I used last week applies this week. For those of you who may not have read last week’s blurb, or perhaps have forgotten, here it is again.

“On the season, Diggs has just 10 catches of 20+ yards. But here’s the kicker. Not one of them occurred in December (or January). In a game with a low projected point total in bad weather, this isn’t the spot where Diggs is suddenly going to break free for a deep one. If he takes a screen or breaks a tackle on a curl, so be it. That’s the only way I see us losing this.”

This week’s game doesn’t have a low point total or bad weather, but as it turned out, neither did last week’s. The game ended up being quite high-scoring and, while it was cold, the weather was not an issue.

When these teams met in Week 14, Diggs commanded a whopping 11 targets. He caught four passes for 24 yards. I am once again expecting a bunch of underneath stuff for Diggs, meaning even if he sees high target volume, he won’t catch a pass longer than 20 yards.

Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (+110 at DraftKings), Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Soppe: In a game that features Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, any player is capable of having a big day. That much we know. These are two creative offenses that pick on opposing weaknesses — it just so happens that these two defenses share a common flaw.

On passes thrown outside the hashes by opponents this season …

  • Chiefs: Fifth-highest opponent aDOT (average depth of target)
  • Chiefs: 32nd in INT% (one interception on 244 throws)
  • Bills: 27th in first-down rate
  • Bills: 29th in completion percentage

They are both good defenses with a similar blind spot that the All-Pro QB on the other side can exploit in a major way. With the knowledge of where to look, the only thing left to do is find the players that are used in those advantageous areas.

MORE: Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the Divisional Round

Dalton Kincaid ranks second among TEs in both catches (42) and catch rate (82.4%) on those perimeter passes. For the season, he and Stefon Diggs have seen 47.1% of Buffalo’s such targets and accounted for 47.3% of their catches on those passes.

If you believe that L’Jarius Sneed is focused on Diggs and/or are worried about Diggs’ recent usage, Kincaid (third among TEs in perimeter routes, 15th in routes run elsewhere) is the man for you.

Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!

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