Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the Divisional Round: Can Josh Allen Protect Home Field?

What do the early numbers suggest will happen in Buffalo this weekend? We give you all the answers in our Chiefs vs. Bills prediction.

Betting on the NFL is tough this time of year, but getting ahead of the market during these high-volume weeks can be the way to go. We’ve seen the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills on more than one occasion — what do the early numbers suggest is likely to unfold on Sunday night? We break it down and more in our Chiefs vs. Bills prediction.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

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  • Spread
    Bills -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Chiefs +125, Bills -145
  • Total
    45.5

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction

In January, form is as important as anything, so let’s take a look at how these two powerhouses have done lately:

  • Bills: Six-game win streak, four coming by a single score
  • Chiefs: 4-1 in their past five, allowing 14.6 points per game

Everyone will recall these two teams meeting in this round in 2021 — the 13-second game. That game featured 78 total points with touchdowns by both teams in every quarter.

The same two signal-callers are under center this time around, but this game might take on a very different feel.

In Buffalo’s past four home games, the Bills have allowed just 13.5 points per game. Now, it should be noted that three of those four games came against inept offenses (Jets, Patriots, and last week against the Steelers), but it should also be noted that the majority of the points allowed in those games came in fortunate circumstances:

  • Jets: Fake punt sets up lone score
  • Cowboys: Garbage-time TD
  • Patriots: Kickoff returned for a TD to start game
  • Steelers: Blocked field goal set up TD

Buffalo’s defense is clearly peaking at the perfect time, and the odds are good that they will need every ounce of that effort against Patrick Mahomes and Company. For his career, Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog with over tickets cashing in seven of those 10 contests.

In those 10 games, the Chiefs have cleared their team total by at least eight points eight times. I’m aware that #BillsMafia will point to their Week 6 meeting last season (the Bills covered as a 1.5-point road favorite and held the Chiefs 5.75 points under expectation), but that has proven to be the exception, not the norm.

So what wins out? The potential of these proven offenses or the form of these defenses (both top five in points allowed per game since Week 13)?

Over the past 20 playoff games with a projected total north of 45 points and a spread of no more than a field goal (in either direction), road teams are 12-7-1 ATS (11-1 outright in those 12 covers).

MORE: Updated Super Bowl 58 Odds — Where Do the Chiefs and Lions Now Stand?

The Chiefs have held the ball for an average of 31:54 in their wins this season, their highest average in the Mahomes era. With an extra day to prep and seasonable temperatures expected in Upstate New York this weekend, Andy Reid’s balanced offense and more consistent defense get my initial lean.

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Chiefs moneyline (+114 at DraftKings), Bills under 24.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

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