The Chicago Bears outlook dives into the fantasy football value of their WR1 DJ Moore, while the New Orleans Saints fantasy preview tries to make sense of their sporadic pass catchers.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Saints -7.5
- Total: 41.5
- Bears implied points: 17
- Saints implied points: 24.5
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: If he can return from a three-week hiatus, he deserves to be started. That’s less about my confidence in his health and more about the state of this position this week, but still. The Bears were finally drawing up running plays for their unique athlete, and with him averaging over 9.5 yards per pass in each of his past two healthy games, the ceiling came into focus.
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Of course, he is still very much a work in progress as a passer, and this Saints defense is the sixth-best unit in the league on a per-play basis, but, again, it’s a bad QB week. I have a hard time thinking that the Bears would put him in harm’s way if he couldn’t protect himself. Under that assumption, he’s a top-10 option for me.
Derek Carr: He might be the least exciting quarterback on fantasy radars, but with three straight top-13 finishes (300+ passing yards in all three games), he’s been better than you think.
Did you know that he has multiple passing touchdowns or 50 attempts in four straight games? What more could you ask for? He has a pair of floor elevators (Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas) and a pair of ceiling raisers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed).
The Taysom Hill snaps under center are annoying, but in Week 9, you can’t be picking nits. Carr is deserving of your attention against a bottom-10 per-play defense and a bottom-five scoring unit.
Running Backs
Roschon Johnson, D’Onta Foreman, and Darrynton Evans: Remember when we went through the Browns backfield situation? The same logic applies here.
- Week 8 snaps: Johnson (24), Foreman (21), Evans (18)
- Week 8 routes: Johnson (13), Foreman (8), Evans (8)
Foreman was started but not involved on third downs. Johnson was eased back into action following the concussion, and Evans was a change-of-pace back. There are several ways this backfield could go this weekend, and it’s not going to get any easier with Khalil Herbert nearing his return.
Due to a lack of clarity, I’m not comfortable ranking any of these backs as a fantasy RB2. One of them likely produces at that level, but we have to factor in the risk of not knowing who it’ll be. After doing that, I end up ranking situations I have a better feel for higher, even if that situation isn’t exciting (looking at you, Rhamondre Stevenson).
Alvin Kamara: Managers just saw consecutive top-five performances for Kamara, and there are no signs of it slowing down. He has at least 17 carries in four straight games and is averaging a whopping 8.8 targets per game this season.
Do those numbers regress closer to his career norms? Probably, but they are riding their most consistent play-maker hard right now, and that has him as a top-three RB for me – both this week and the rest of the way.
Jamaal Williams: The idea of Williams fits well in this offense, but the usage doesn’t support that thought. He has just 12 total touches in his two games back from the IR (out-snapped 38-15 by Kamara last week in Indy), and Taysom Hill is handling the role of goal-line vulture.
I believe better days are ahead for the 2022 TD King, but I fully understand you need to move on if your lineup needs immediate help.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore: How long ago does that 361-yard, four-touchdown, two-week stretch feel? He hasn’t scored or cleared 55 yards in a game since then, despite catching 17 passes in those three games.
During these recent struggles, his aDOT has dipped 46.7% from his rate through five weeks – the Tyson Bagent experience simply isn’t fantasy-friendly. Moore is the top option in this passing game, and it doesn’t matter one bit.
The Saints allow the third-fewest yards per pass, and that has Moore ranking as part of a game sandwich at the WR position:
- 36. Michael Thomas
- 37. DJ Moore
- 38. Rashid Shaheed
If Justin Fields suits up, Moore would jump up 10-12 spots in my WR ranks and move into the strong Flex play tier.
Chris Olave: He dropped a scoring opportunity, and alas, it was another disappointing week for a promising talent. This season, Olave has more double-digit target games (five) than he has top-30 finishes (four). It’s tough to paint an optimistic picture.
Tough, but not impossible. Carr posted a league-high (and season-high for him) 12.3 aDOT last week, proof of shoulder health that has me talking myself into an Olave (career aDOT: 14.0) resurgence. He’s a top-20 play for me, rubbing elbows with other volatile options like Nico Collins and DeVonta Smith.
Michael Thomas: In five of eight games this season, Thomas has finished the week ranked as WR40-52. That level of consistency is the rare mix of impressive and underwhelming. He’s a situational play this week like he is every week – Flex him if you’re in the driver’s seat, look elsewhere in all other situations.
He’s 2022 Diontae Johnson with slightly less volume.
Rashid Shaheed: One of the great philosophical voices of this generation provided the Shaheed weekly analysis 15 years ago.
“I do what I do, and you do what you can do about it.”
I’ve always said that Lil’ Wayne missed his calling as a fantasy analyst, and this lyric from “A Milli” makes it clear that he knows his stuff. The past two weeks, per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet, have been a prime example of exactly that for New Orleans’ elite deep threat:
- Week 7: Eight targets and 5.2 fantasy points
- Week 8: Three targets and 22.8 fantasy points
Shaheed’s role changes for no one; some defenses can do something about it while others don’t – just like Weezy told us in 2008. Savant.
Can the Bears stop him? They own a low-pressure rate, giving Carr the time needed to find Shaheed down the field. However, Chicago has largely employed a bend-don’t-break philosophy (seventh-lowest opponent aDOT).
In a week where “safe” players are hard to come by, I’ve elevated those players in my rankings with the thought being that avoiding landmines in Week 9 will be profitable.
Under that premise, Shaheed isn’t going to be in most of my lineups. The fact that he ran a route on 88.9% of his snaps last week provides confidence to those going in this direction, but you need to go in with eyes wide open about the range of outcomes.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: What has come off of Moore’s plate lately has gone onto Kmet’s (5+ catches in three of his past four, including 10 grabs last week against the Chargers). He has four top-10 performances on his 2023 resume, and that’s a level of upside that many on your wire do not have access to.
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Kmet is a volume-based flier, which is the direction I prefer to go when it comes to tight ends rather than the options that are reliant on scoring. That’s not to say I’m overly confident (TE13 for me), but his path to viable production is reasonably clear and worth buying into for those streaming.
Taysom Hill: Juwan Johnson returned to action (40 snaps and 18 routes), and not only did he not slow down Hill’s momentum, but his presence improved it! New Orleans’ utility knife was fantasy’s top-scoring tight end last week, his third consecutive top-10 finish on the heels of finishing three straight games as TE30 or worse.
He earned only one target, but he is essentially filling the role we thought Jamaal Williams would hold in this offense. Hill scored from 20 yards out on a direct snap and punched in a one-yard TD against the Colts as part of a nine-carry, 63-yard performance.
At this point, we are assuming this unique role until it disappears. Like Williams circa 2022, the value of his carries is superior to most, and he has the skill of cashing in on them. Unlike Williams, Hill is TE eligible and, thus, as long as this role holds, possesses a floor that ranks him in the third tier at the position.
Could the role dry up with time? It’s possible, but through eight weeks, the Saints have told us that they are interested in featuring Hill. Until that changes, he’s a top-12 option for me.
Should You Start DJ Moore or Jahan Dotson?
I’m betting on Sam Howell this week, and as scary as that sounds, it is considerably safer than tying yourself to the Bears offense. Dotson is far from a safe option, but with 18 targets over the past two weeks (13 catches for 151 yards and a TD), he is the play over a receiver in Moore who has just two finishes this season with a finish better than WR28.
Should You Start Christian Watson or Michael Thomas?
These are two very different receivers, so your matchup will play a part in this decision, but barring a big underdog spot, I want the floor that comes with Thomas. Say what you will about Derek Carr, but the Saints are throwing the ball plenty, and Thomas is as good a bet for 7-10 points as there is. He may lack a ceiling, but his floor is well above that of Watson as a part of the Jordan Love experience.
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