If you’re planning to make Chicago Bears prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 bets for two of the Bears’ top playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Darnell Mooney.
Top Chicago Bears prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
How much will Justin Fields struggle? Entering last season, that question made sense. Entering this season, it shouldn’t make sense. But Fields didn’t get much run last year, presumably for good reasons (though that can be debated). Now the key question is whether Fields is the Bears’ quarterback of the future. If he can’t take several steps forward in 2022, it’s hard to imagine Chicago remaining patient heading into 2023. This could be Mitch Trubisky all over again.
But on the betting circuit, the market has already factored in these concerns. Fields’ value couldn’t get lower unless he lost his starting job, and that’s not likely to happen for a team that will do everything they can to elevate him. His prop assumes an average of barely one TD pass per game. Yes, that’s possible. But I like the Bears’ relatively easy schedule, which should give Fields enough multi-touchdown efforts to give him 20+ scores through the air.
Passing TDs: Over 18.5
Passing INTs: Under 15.5
I’ve been on board the David Montgomery train since he entered the league. Sometimes, he’s paid off big. Other times, he’s fallen short. Unfortunately, his time atop the Bears’ depth chart could be nearing an end. Khalil Herbert demonstrated last year that the youngster could challenge Montgomery for the No. 1 job in 2023.
In a relatively weak offense, it’s hard to bet on Montgomery matching or exceeding last year’s totals. A regression appears much more likely, as his 267 touches in 2021 seem like a pipe dream this year.
Rushing yards: Under 825.5
Rushing TDs: Over 6.5
It’s not that Darnell Mooney isn’t good; he certainly is. But for much of last season, he was the only game in town. Cole Kmet was still finding his footing. Allen Robinson struggled with injuries and poor production. And the best tertiary receiver options were Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin, and Jimmy Graham.
I expect more touchdowns for Mooney, who remains entrenched as the team’s No. 1 WR. But that doesn’t guarantee him another 1,000+ yard season. He needed 140 targets last year to muster an 81-reception, 1,055-yard receiving line. I believe he won’t exceed 120 targets, and as a result, he’ll be much closer to the 800-yard range.
Receiving yards: Under 925.5
Receiving TDs: Over 4.5