Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Chase Edmonds could not have flamed out worse in his first chance as a starter last season. He now finds himself on a weaker offense but also one with a shallow running back depth chart. What is Edmonds’ fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Chase Edmonds’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
I was pretty in on Edmonds ahead of the 2022 season. He displayed a high weekly ceiling in Arizona and was projected to have a strong target share in Mike McDaniel’s pass-happy offense.
Edmonds opened the season as the Dolphins’ clear lead running back, playing 63% of the snaps. In Week 2, that dropped to 51%. The following week, 44%. After that, Edmonds would crest a 30% snap share just one more time before being traded to the Broncos.
While in Denver, Edmonds played a bit role before suffering a high ankle sprain. He returned for the final three weeks to a barren depth chart and was able to see the field considerably but couldn’t produce.
Edmonds’ failure was a valuable lesson. After four years as a satellite back in Arizona, it was bad process to expect Edmonds to suddenly become a feature back. That doesn’t mean we should’ve expected him to go from 11.9 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 to 5.7 ppg in 2022. It’s more that the perceived upside wasn’t actually there.
Should You Draft Chase Edmonds This Year?
For four years, Edmonds patiently waited to get his chance to prove himself as a lead back. Once he got that chance, all he proved was that he wasn’t up to the task.
Edmonds may still be just 27 years old. However, he is not going to suddenly revive his hopes to be a lead back. At best, Edmonds profiles as a receiving back in a committee.
In terms of opportunity, landing in Tampa Bay is about as good as it gets. They have one of the weakest running back depth charts in the NFL.
Rachaad White is the clear starter, but he is a replacement-level talent, at best, a poor runner, and not someone I believe warrants a three-down role. But who is going to share the work? Ke’Shawn Vaughn? UDFA rookie Sean Tucker? There’s just no real threat on the team. That gives Edmonds at least a puncher’s chance of earning a role.
With that said, Edmonds sure looks a lot like the Bucs’ replacement for Giovani Bernard. Bernard spent two years in Tampa as nothing more than roster depth. Last season, he handled eight carries and saw two targets. Unfortunately, this is the future I see for Edmonds.
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It’s unfortunate because there’s an opportunity here for someone to step up, as White is arguably the weakest starting running back in the NFL right now. Edmonds is just not the guy for that job.
Edmonds’ ADP sits at RB72, No. 250 overall. He’s nowhere near being drafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues. I did not even rank Edmonds. Even in deeper leagues, he belongs nowhere near draft boards. There is no round where fantasy managers should even consider drafting him.
