If you follow the NFL closely or even remotely, you’re probably aware of the big-name running backs joining the league this season — rookies who might become household names by the end of the year. But one Day 3 RB who isn’t getting much attention might be the most important running back to track in rookie minicamps. I’m talking about the Cincinnati Bengals‘ Chase Brown.
Is Chase Brown NFL-Ready?
Brown was selected with the No. 163 pick, sandwiched between Colts TE Will Mallory and Vikings QB Jaren Hall. We’ll call this part of the draft “Old Man Corner,” because Brown is already 23 years old, Mallory will turn 24 in June, and Hall turned 25 in March. Whatever talent these players possess, every other team passed on them (and other “chronologically advanced” players) in part because of their relatively limited development period.
It’s no coincidence that the first 18 draft picks last year were players entering their age-21 or age-22 seasons, as well as 35 of the first 38 picks the year before. This is pretty typical, with few exceptions.
So first off, let’s dismiss the notion that Brown automatically is a fifth-round-caliber rookie talent. If he were 21 or 22, he might have gone in the fourth or even third round.
Although Brown isn’t flashy, he has the size and strength to succeed at the professional level. He’s also coming off a campaign where he rushed 328 times and caught 27 passes. In other words, he’s capable of serving as a bell cow if needed.
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Given the guys Cincinnati has in the backfield, Brown’s workhorse potential is key. Behind Joe Mixon sits Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans. Neither has demonstrated that they can fill the gaping hole left by Samaje Perine’s offseason departure.
My theory is that the Bengals are genuinely thrilled to have landed Brown — that they desperately needed a running back, bided their time, and then snagged their target at the ideal moment. Brown’s a terrific fit for a franchise with realistic Super Bowl ambitions and an otherwise capable RB1 facing what might be a troublesome legal ordeal (more on that below).
Of course, this is all conjecture. Is Brown the next Tyler Allgeier or Isiah Pacheco? Or is he the next “too many forgotten RBs to count”? Day 3 running backs are largely crapshoots. A handful pan out, with some being fortunate enough to serve as multi-year backups. Most, however, end up having peaked in college.
That’s why Brown’s showing in rookie minicamp is an important test of his abilities. Because if he’s clear and above Williams and Evans on the depth chart by early August, then it will signal the Bengals’ intent to use him. But if Brown struggles to make headway in camp, then Cincy might need to add another piece before September.
What Is Joe Mixon’s Status?
Mixon‘s off-the-field issues are well documented. They contributed to his stock falling ahead of the 2017 NFL Draft, where the Bengals finally selected him at No. 48 overall. A criminal charge filed against Mixon for an alleged incident in early February — soon thereafter dismissed, and then refiled in April — loom over this franchise.
For now, Cincinnati is expected to roll with Mixon in 2023. Of course, anything can happen these next few months, and the team’s decision to draft a running back this year reinforces the premise that they’re hoping Mixon is legally cleared, while simultaneously preparing for other scenarios.
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Also consider that Mixon has rarely demonstrated a high degree of efficiency with his running. His last 400 rushing attempts (regular season and playoffs) have produced only 1,520 yards, which equates to 3.8 yards per carry.
So while Mixon’s legal status remains at least moderately precarious, his slowdown that began in 2021 could be a sign of decline for a frequently injured and recently overworked running back.