The Cincinnati Bengals backfield is much more open with the departure of Joe Mixon. Sophomore RB Chase Brown will compete with free agent acquisition Zack Moss for touches. Can Brown earn a meaningful workload? What is his fantasy football projection?
Chase Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 10.6
- Rushing Yards: 605
- Rush TDs: 0
- Receptions: 47
- Receiving Yards: 527
- Receiving TDs: 3.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Brown This Year?
I distinctly remember when the Bengals started utilizing Brown as the guy behind Mixon (Week 13). Brown entered the game on Cincinnati’s second offensive snap and wound up carrying the ball nine times for 61 yards. The very next week, he took a Jake Browning screen 54 yards to the house.
Vividness bias is a real thing, which is why fantasy managers likely have a more positive view on Brown’s performance than reality. Don’t get me wrong, he was effective with the ball in his hands, but Brown wasn’t on the field that much. He didn’t play more than 28% of the snaps in a single game.
The reason it felt greater is because when Brown was out there, he was getting the ball. Brown averaged 5.8 yards per touch, and 9.1% of his carries went for 15+ yards. He only had 44 carries on the season but displayed explosiveness and strong burst.
Brown gets to play on a team with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. There’s definitely fantasy potential here, yet projecting Brown’s fantasy output relies heavily on projecting his role.
This is technically an ambiguous backfield. Neither Zack Moss nor Brown has a particularly high ADP. Moss goes above Brown, but not in a spot that suggests fantasy managers are confident in his role as the RB1.
This is an area where I have changed my tune over the course of the Summer. Initially, I firmly planted my flag on Moss as the RB1. Brown was always going to have a role, particularly on passing downs, but I didn’t think he would be a passing-down back the way someone like Tyjae Spears was for the Tennessee Titans last season.
I have Brown projected for 79 carries and 30 targets, amassing a total of 535 yards and 5.9 touchdowns. My projections have him averaging 6.63 fantasy points per game. That’s more than his 4.5 ppg from last season, but nowhere near enough to fantasy relevant.
With that said, I now think there’s a higher chance Brown has more value than just a Moss handcuff. I am still projecting him low because I haven’t completely moved off of Moss as the RB1, but I am much more open to the idea that Brown could be the better fantasy asset.
Brown comes out as the RB49 in my projections. However, PFN’s consensus projections are applying more uncertainty into how the touches will be divided. They may very well end up being the better set of projections.
With an RB38 ADP, Brown isn’t overly expensive. You can certainly do worse as your RB4. The gap between Brown and Moss will likely be impacted by training camp and preseason throughout the month of August. By the time you’re reading this, it’s possible they are going right next to each other. I am now open to the idea of drafting both of them.
