Chase Brown’s Fantasy Outlook: Incredible Opportunity to Be the Lead Back in Cincinnati

Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown walks into a potential committee situation this season with Joe Mixon now a member of the Houston Texans.

The 2023 fifth-rounder should be given every chance to carve out a role, but without much NFL tape on him, the fantasy football community is approaching Brown with caution in drafts.

Is Brown the perfect low-risk, high-reward option at a position that requires depth on fantasy football rosters, or is Zack Moss the better buy in this backfield a few rounds earlier?

Chase Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast

With just 58 touches on his NFL resume, it’s difficult to know exactly what Brown can do for you. But there were certainly some nice sparks last year.

Brown wasn’t drafted to impact 2023 in a significant way, so I’m not the least bit discouraged by his lack of usage as a rookie.

I love the fact that he turned 15 targets into 14 catches and 156 yards last season. No, that’s not much in the way of volume, but for a player who saw only 7.6% of his touches during his final collegiate season come through the air, Cincinnati’s willingness to explore his capabilities in the short passing game was the most encouraging thing I saw from Brown in 2023.

The concerns aren’t secret. What will the role look like with the team signing Moss to a two-year deal, and will he be efficient enough to earn an expanded role? Moss averaged 4.5 yards per carry across two seasons with the Colts and was productive in his first four games last season as he handled a featured role in Jonathan Taylor’s absence.

• At HOU: 18 carries for 88 yards and a TD (four catches for 19 yards)
• At BAL: 30 carries for 122 yards (two catches for 23 yards and a TD)
• Vs. LAR: 18 carries for 70 yards
• Vs. TEN: 23 carries for 165 yards and two TDs (two catches for 30 yards)

Moss profiles as the lead back entering the preseason and his roughly three-round edge in ADP reflects as much. He is the more proven commodity, and in an offense built around Joe Burrow, NFL experience is going to be valued in a significant way.

Brown carried the ball 44 times last season, and two of them were chunk plays. If we remove those two carries, we are looking at a running back without many professional reps who averaged just 2.88 yards per carry as a rookie, and maybe we are not having this discussion.

While I think Moss is a good bet to get the first carry in Week 1 and hold that role for the majority of the season, I have no issue with you selecting Brown outside the top 100 players/top 35 RBs. He is pretty clearly going to be in the mix for work in an offense we believe will return to elite form with Burrow under center. It’s a role that carries upside, no matter what you think of Brown as a prospect.

The Bengals’ 2024 schedule includes some brutal matchups, making it difficult to get too excited about any window of sustained viability for either Cincinnati back should this be a committee situation.

At cost, I prefer Moss, as I like to enter the season with a role in hand and go from there. If the opportunity presents itself to grab both Moss and Brown, I wouldn’t hesitate – cheap exposure to high-powered offenses isn’t a bad way to build a roster.

Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Chase Brown

Brown gets to play on a team with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. There’s definitely fantasy potential here, yet projecting Brown’s fantasy output relies heavily on projecting his role.

This is technically an ambiguous backfield. Neither Zack Moss nor Brown has a particularly high ADP. Moss goes above Brown, but not in a spot that suggests fantasy managers are confident in his role as the RB1.

This is an area where I have changed my tune over the course of the Summer. Initially, I firmly planted my flag on Moss as the RB1. Brown was always going to have a role, particularly on passing downs, but I didn’t think he would be a passing-down back the way someone like Tyjae Spears was for the Tennessee Titans last season.

I have Brown projected for 79 carries and 30 targets, amassing a total of 535 yards and 5.9 touchdowns. My projections have him averaging 6.63 fantasy points per game. That’s more than his 4.5 ppg from last season, but nowhere near enough to fantasy relevant.

With that said, I now think there’s a higher chance Brown has more value than just a Moss handcuff. I am still projecting him low because I haven’t completely moved off of Moss as the RB1, but I am much more open to the idea that Brown could be the better fantasy asset.

Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook

• Fantasy points per game: 10.6
• Rushing Yards: 605
• Rush TDs: 0
• Receptions: 47
• Receiving Yards: 527
• Receiving TDs: 3.4

These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.