After a massive Thursday Night Football win against the Denver Broncos, the Los Angeles Chargers have put themselves in a great spot in the AFC playoff race.
What Is the Los Angeles Chargers’ Current Playoff Picture?
The Chargers did not clinch a playoff spot with a win on Thursday Night Football. However, they did put themselves in a very strong position. At 9-6, they would need to lose their remaining two games, and one of the chasing teams must win all of their remaining three. Even then, there are permutations that could still see Los Angeles in the playoffs at 9-8.
The Chargers failed to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16. They would have needed the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins to all lose on Sunday. But all three teams won, delaying Los Angeles from locking up an AFC Wild Card berth.
The Chargers can clinch a playoff spot next Saturday at the New England Patriots. Regardless of any other results, a win in New England next week would clinch Los Angeles a playoff spot at 10-6 with a game to play.
If the Chargers were to lose in New England, they would have another chance at the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18, where, again, a win would be enough regardless of what happened elsewhere.
MORE: AFC Wild Card Playoff Scenarios in Week 16
If the Chargers don’t win another game this season and finish at 9-8, they clinch a playoff spot if all three of the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals each fail to win one of their remaining games. At least one of them needs to get to nine wins to force the NFL playoff tiebreakers to come into effect.
If that were to happen, we would have to look first at the teams’ head-to-head records, followed by either divisional or conference records, depending on who the ties were between. There are several permutations with as many as five teams that could be tied on 9-8 if the results were to fall a certain way.
The most pertinent notes for the Chargers are:
- They have head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Broncos (2-0) and the Bengals (1-0).
- The Chargers would have a conference record of 6-6 if they finish 9-8. The Colts and Dolphins would have a superior record at 7-5, the Bengals would also be at 6-6, and the Broncos would be a 5-7.
What all of this means is that the Chargers will always win a straight head-to-head tiebreaker with the Broncos and Bengals. As divisional ties resolve first, having that tiebreaker over the Broncos in terms of head-to-head is vital.
Los Angeles would be in trouble if it is in any tiebreaker with Indianapolis and Miami, whom the Chargers haven’t faced this year but would have a worse conference record than.
There are no scenarios where the Colts and Dolphins finish with the same record as the Chargers and finish below them in the standings.
Similarly, there are no scenarios where the Bengals or Broncos can finish above the Chargers if they have the same record.
Make sure to check out Pro Football Network’s updated playoff percentages to find out exactly how likely a Chargers post-season trip is. And then head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
