Miami’s decision to secure a commitment from No. 2 quarterback prospect Israel Abrams has cleared the way for Oregon to solidify its standing as the frontrunner for five-star signal-caller Will Mencl, the top-ranked quarterback in the 2027 recruiting cycle.
Mencl, who plays under center for Chandler High School in Arizona, had drawn interest from several programs, but the Hurricanes’ move on Abrams appears to have removed them from contention.
Oregon Holds a Commanding Lead as Other Contenders Struggle to Gain Traction
Three programs remain involved in Mencl’s recruitment, Oregon, Penn State, and Auburn, yet the gap between the Ducks and the rest of the field is large. According to the Rivals Recruiting Prediction Machine, Oregon commands a 97.4% probability of landing Mencl’s signature, while Penn State sits at less than 1%.
Much of Oregon’s advantage stems from the program’s continuity under head coach Dan Lanning, who has guided the Ducks to consecutive double-digit win seasons and a 2025 College Football Playoff semifinal appearance. In 2025, the Ducks finished 13-2, with their season ending in a 56-22 loss to Indiana in the CFP semifinals.
That track record offers Mencl and his family a level of institutional stability that neither Auburn nor Penn State can match. Both Matt Campbell at Penn State and Alex Golesh at Auburn are navigating their first spring practices as head coaches. Campbell was hired by the Nittany Lions in December 2025 to replace James Franklin, while Golesh took over at Auburn on Nov. 30, 2025, following a stint at USF.
Rivals recruiting analyst Adam Gorney captured the sentiment recently: “The Ducks have been involved with Mencl from the beginning. They were involved with him before he shot up the rankings… I think that really pays off.”
Gorney also reinforced that Abrams’ decision to choose Miami benefits the Ducks. “Israel Abrams’ commitment to Miami knocks Miami off the list for Mencl, which only favors Oregon as the leader,” he noted.
On the roster front, Oregon’s quarterback room adds another layer of appeal. Dylan Raiola, a former five-star, joined the program via the transfer portal this offseason after a stint at Nebraska. Additionally, Dante Moore announced on Jan. 14, 2026, that he would return as the starter for the 2026 season rather than declare for the NFL Draft, giving the Ducks a developmental pathway for a prospect of Mencl’s caliber.
Will Mencl’s On-Field Production Explains Why Programs Are Lining Up
Understanding why Mencl commands this level of attention requires a look at his statistical body of work. During his 2025 junior season at Chandler, he threw for 3,815 yards, 33 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also proved his dual-threat capability by rushing for 741 yards and 17 scores.
The prior campaign offered an earlier glimpse at his efficiency. In eight games, he compiled 1,058 yards through the air on a 71.4% completion rate, adding 11 touchdown passes against three interceptions.
Mencl’s value extends beyond the pocket. Over his varsity career, his rushing production has been a staple of the Chandler offense, underscoring his effectiveness as a dual-threat operator.
For Oregon, landing Mencl would represent another addition to a program that has recruited at a high level under Lanning. The question is no longer whether the Ducks are the favorite; it’s whether any program can mount a challenge before Mencl makes his college choice official.
