Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Virginia Cavaliers are projected to be on the fringe of the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Virginia’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Virginia’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Virginia a 64% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Virginia is currently ranked 17th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 10-2 overall and 7-1 in conference play.
What was once a very complicated ACC postseason picture is now very simple. Virginia and Duke will play in the ACC Championship. If Virginia wins the ACC title, they’re in the CFB Playoffs. If they lose, they’re out.
PFSN’s College FPM gives Virginia a 64% chance of beating Duke, but the Blue Devils won’t be an easy out. Darian Mensah is one of the better quarterbacks in college football, with a respectable weapons cast and offensive line, and the defense has talent as well.
Nevertheless, the Cavaliers have proven time and time again in 2025 that they can do what it takes to win the winnable games. Chandler Morris is an effective game manager under center, and Tony Elliott has coached up his roster with admirable consistency.
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If the Cavaliers win the ACC Championship and manifest their CFP Playoff potential, they’ll earn either the 10-seed or 11-seed. They’ll at least supersede the lowest-ranked squad for the 12-seed, but the 10-seed is the highest Virginia can rise.
Even if the Cavaliers win the ACC title, they won’t be able to secure a first-round bye in the CFB Playoffs at their current ranking — but simply having a chance to make noise in the postseason is enough for a Virginia squad that was expected to be middle-of-the-road at best in the preseason.
The Cavaliers have a 17.9% chance of earning the 10-seed and a 46.1% chance of earning the 11-seed. If they win the 10-seed, they’ll play one of Georgia, Texas A&M, or BYU in the first round — but only if BYU wins the Big 12 title. If they secure the 11-seed, they’ll play one of Georgia, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M.
Our simulations give Virginia a 7.1% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 2.2% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.7% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
