Entering Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Virginia remained in the mix when it comes to the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. While on a bye, the Cavaliers watched events unfold, shaping their path to the conference postseason party, and potentially beyond.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Virginia’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Virginia’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Virginia an 80.1%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Virginia Tech. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 75.6% of simulations.
Virginia had a bye this week, and the rest of the conference experienced some chaos. Georgia Tech falling to Pitt was the most significant development for the Cavaliers, as they leapfrog the Yellow Jackets in the race to the ACC title game. They also hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Panthers.
Although the rest of the results in Week 13 weren’t enough to guarantee Virginia an ACC Championship Game berth with one game to play, they’re the masters of their own destiny against Virginia Tech in Week 14.
It’s a simple win-and-in scenario. There is also a chance for them to reach the ACC Championship Game with a Week 14 loss, but the less you rely on other teams, the better.
What are Virginia’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. The PFSN College FPM gives Virginia a 45.0% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the ACC Championship Game in 80.1% of simulations, and win the conference in 45.0% of simulations. That leaves them with a zero chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.
Virginia is currently ranked 19th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. That makes it challenging for them to earn an “At-Large” bid because the only way to climb into the top 10, where they would need to be, would be by winning out. Sitting at 9-2 in the relatively weak ACC makes it hard for Virginia to be considered as an At-Large team.
If Virginia makes it into the playoff as the ACC Champion, their range of potential seeds spreads from No. 4 to No. 11, depending on how other results fall. We also do not know how the committee may view a conference championship in relation to other factors, which could also play a significant role in how they are seeded.
Our simulations also give Virginia a 7.2% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 2.5% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.8% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
