Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Vanderbilt Commodores are projected to be on the fringe of the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the hunt to make the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Vanderbilt’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Vanderbilt’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Vanderbilt a 0% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Vanderbilt is currently ranked 14th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in conference play.
Our simulations give Vanderbilt a 0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
Unfortunately for the Vanderbilt Commodores, it appears as though the ship has sailed for the 2025-26 CFB Playoffs. The latest CFB Playoff ranking update had them well outside the fringe of the Playoff field, and notably behind a fellow fringe SEC team in Texas.
The Longhorns themselves are on the outside looking in for the CFB Playoffs, so their ranking ahead of Vanderbilt spells further doubt for Clark Lea’s squad.
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Missing the CFB Playoffs doesn’t make the 2025 season a failure for Vanderbilt — in fact, far from it. The 2025 season featured Vanderbilt’s best record in school history, their first ever campaign with double-digit wins, and their best record in conference play since the 1930s.
What’s more: Vanderbilt had a certified Heisman candidate in Diego Pavia, who threw for 3,192 yards and 27 touchdowns in regular season play, while also running for almost 1,000 yards and nine more scores. In his second season with the Commodores after transferring from New Mexico State, Pavia helped Lea’s team reach previously unforeseen heights.
There’s still work to be done, and Vanderbilt’s exclusion from the CFB Playoff field is proof of that. Their best win came against the now-unranked Tennessee Volunteers, and and their losses to CFB Playoff contenders in Texas and Alabama ultimately proved to be the final nails in the coffin.
Nevertheless, Vanderbilt is a program on the rise in the SEC. They’re gaining ground as a desirable transfer destination, and they have an ascending 2026 recruiting class — having recently flipped the commitment of five-star QB Jared Curtis just ahead of signing day.
2025 was a historic year of firsts for the Vanderbilt Commodores, and while they won’t be able to end it with an exclamation point in the CFB Playoffs, it could serve as a springboard for 2026 and beyond.
