Entering Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, Utah remains in the mix when it comes to competing in the Big 12 Championship Game and taking part in the College Football Playoff. However, with six teams in the Big 12 having one or two losses entering Week 12, Utah’s path to Arlington is somewhat convoluted and requires some outside help.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Utah’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Utah’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Utah an 8.5% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Baylor (3-3, 5-4), vs. Kansas State (3-3, 4-5), and at Kansas (3-4, 5-5).
Utah is in a tough spot because it has losses to two of the one-loss teams in Texas Tech and BYU. That means if they ended up in a two- or three-way tiebreaker with either of those teams, they would be out of luck. However, if one or both of those teams drop a game each, then those losses could be negated in a convoluted multi-team tiebreaker when it comes to record against common conference opponents.
They defeated Cincinnati last week, so they do at least have a tiebreaker advantage there. However, for it to matter, BYU or Texas Tech would need to drop a game in the remaining two weeks.
Utah’s focus needs to be getting to 7-2 and seeing how the rest of the conference plays out. Entering Week 13, Utah’s rooting guide for other Big 12 teams should become far clearer.
What are Utah’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for Utah: win the Big 12 Championship Game or be an at-large team. PFSN College FPM currently gives Utah a 12.9% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations give Utah an 8.9% chance of playing the Big 12 Championship Game and a 3.4% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship Game. That leaves them with a 9.5% chance of making the CFP as an at-large team.
However, the complication with being an “at large” team is that there is no definitive metric to determine who gets those spots. It is decided based on the opinions and thoughts of the CFP Selection Committee, which has Utah ranked 13th because their only two losses have come against teams they rank above them (BYU and Texas Tech).
If Utah wins out, then the potential for chaos above them could help them secure a spot in the CFP. Two of Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma are guaranteed to lose this weekend, which could drop one or two of them below Utah entering the final two weeks of the season. However, it is not guaranteed that a two-loss Alabama or Georgia or a three-loss Oklahoma or Texas would be ranked below Utah.
The other element is that Utah does not play a team down the stretch that will strengthen its own resume. In contrast, Vanderbilt (14th) plays 23rd-ranked Tennessee, and the likes of Michigan, USC, and Miami all have the potential to add marquee wins to their schedule. Our analytics do not suggest that Utah should be an at-large team, but the CFP Selection Committee may view it differently.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Utah as a top-four seed in 3.32% of simulations. Those simulations that have them as a top-four seed are as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed and will only matter if they win the conference.
Our simulations also give Utah a 2.8% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.37% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
