The USC Trojans almost mounted a comeback against the Oregon Ducks, but ended up falling short in a four-quarter affair. Do the Trojans have any shot left at making the Big Ten Championship game or the CFB Playoffs? Let’s take a closer look.
USC Trojans Fall to Oregon Ducks, Snuffing Out Postseason Hope
The USC Trojans came into Week 13 with an overall record of 8-2, and a Big Ten record of 6-1. They were still mathematically in the race for the Big Ten Championship game, but needed to beat Oregon to stay in the hunt.
Suffice to say, the outlook isn’t optimistic for USC after the team’s 42-27 loss to Oregon in Week 13. The Trojans were able to bring the deficit to one score in the second half after playing from behind for most of the game, but they weren’t able to close the gap entirely.
final.@WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/8734mLqt6O
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 23, 2025
Before their game against Oregon, the USC Trojans had a 29% chance to make the playoffs, per the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
The CFB Playoff Committee ranked USC at 15th in the nation in the latest update, placing them just outside the optimal range for At-Large teams.
With the loss against Oregon, however, USC’s chances of making the CFB Playoffs have plummeted to 6.6%. They are eliminated from Big Ten Championship contention, and their window for becoming an At-Large team has grown increasingly thin.
For USC to make the CFB Playoffs as an At-Large team, everything would need to go right for them among other At-Large contenders. That involves quality teams dropping massive upsets against non-power opponents. In the full range of all potential outcomes, it is technically possible — but unlikely to the point where it’s not practical to discuss.
USC still enjoyed modest success in 2025, and in particular can boast a high-powered offense behind the arm of Jayden Maiava and the receiving skill of future first-round pick Makai Lemon. But throughout the year, an unfortunate truth pestered Lincoln Riley’s squad: They couldn’t win the big games they needed to win in order to compete.
In four games against ranked opponents, the Trojans only came away with one win against Michigan. A loss against a beatable Illinois team will no doubt haunt Riley as the offseason approaches, but the Trojans’ game against Oregon put the gap between the two programs on full display.
USC has a bowl game to look forward to, but the Trojans will now prepare to re-load for 2026 — while Oregon gears up for the CFB Playoffs in their stead.
