Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the USC Trojans are on the outer fringe of the CFB Playoff field. Can they make it into the 12-team bracket and compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine USC’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are USC’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives USC a 0% chance of making the College Football Playoff. USC is currently ranked 17th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 8-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play.
The Trojans and Lincoln Riley have three projected automatic bids ranked ahead of them — from the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12, respectively — and would also be further displaced by automatic bids from the chaotic ACC and the Group of Six.
Past the five automatic bids, only seven At-Large teams make the CFB Playoffs. Using current seeding and not conference championship winners for the moment, the current projected At-Large teams would be Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama.
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There are at least five teams outside of the 12-team CFB Playoff field that are still ahead of USC in the running to secure postseason real estate. USC does have a win over fellow fringe contender Michigan, but losses to Oregon and Illinois have jeopardized their standing.
For all practical intents and purposes, USC is eliminated from the CFB Playoffs — though it is technically possible that all of the At-Large candidates in front of USC could lose, while USC beats UCLA. Even in that scenario, however, USC would be on a level playing field with several three-loss teams, and with no statement wins, they would likely be left out.
The PFSN CFB FPM is not optimistic for USC’s chances at securing a CFB Playoff bid. What the Trojans have most to look forward to is a high-profile bowl game and a potential run in 2026, especially if quarterback Jayden Maiava returns to school.
Our simulations give USC a 0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.