Following a win in Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Tulane remains in the mix when it comes to the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With five teams still alive in The American, Tulane’s playoff chances hinge on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Tulane’s chances of making it to the American Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Tulane’s American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Tulane a 96.8%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Charlotte. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 83.2% of simulations.
Tulane is probably the only team with a scenario that we can feel 100% confident about sending them to The American Championship Game entering Week 13. As they were ranked by the CFP Selection Committee this week and won, they are likely to remain ranked and remain the highest-ranked team in the conference.
That means if they win in Week 14, they would be assured not only of a spot in the American Championship Game, but it would likely be hosted in New Orleans for the third time in four years. With their conference loss being against a team that is not in the picture for the Championship Game, head-to-head cannot stop them in this scenario.
A loss complicates matters considerably. We saw South Florida drop out of the CFP Selection Committee rankings with a loss last week, and if Tulane loses in Week 13, they would likely drop out and potentially be replaced by another team from the conference.
Either way, Tulane would then need to rely on the analytic rankings as the tiebreaker, unless they are in a two-way tiebreaker with East Carolina, whom they beat earlier this season.
If Tulane loses in Week 14, then things get more complicated. The ranked team must win in Week 14 to retain its advantage, so Tulane would once again be relying on the analytic rankings, and could be in trouble if either North Texas or Navy is ranked and wins in Week 14.
What are Tulane’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough. However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives Tulane a 57.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make The American Championship Game in 96.8% of simulations, and win the conference in 57.6% of simulations.
Tulane is currently ranked 24th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. That makes it challenging for them to earn an “At-Large” bid because the only way to climb into the top 10, where they would need to be, would be by winning out, and doing so would mean they win The American Conference Championship, which likely earns them the Group of Five spot.
If Tulane is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 seed in the first round. There is a chance that if several teams ranked above them lose, they could end up as the No. 10 or No. 11 seed, but a higher seed than 12th seems very unlikely.
Our simulations also give Tulane a 3.3% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.0% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.28% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
