The American Conference Championship Game picture is set up enticingly for the final three weeks of the season, with up to eight teams still mathematically alive depending on how tiebreakers fall. Week 12 should see some of that resolve itself, but let’s take a look at the current situation and the American Conference Championship Game scenarios that could unfold over the next three weeks.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to The American Championship Game.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in The American Championship Game?
Entering Week 12, there are 10 teams with three or fewer losses in conference play. Navy, South Florida (USF), Tulane, North Texas, and East Carolina were all tied with one loss apiece, while some teams with as many as three losses still technically have a chance, even if it is a slim one.
Unless things get really chaotic, it is extremely unlikely that any of those teams with three losses will make it to the American Conference Championship Game. That would require four of the five one-loss teams to lose two games, and Memphis, on two losses, to also lose one more game.
The 10 teams that are on three or fewer conference losses and their chances according to the PFSN FPM of making the American Conference Championship Game are (conference record, overall record):
- North Texas (5-1, 9-1): 62.6%
- Navy (6-1, 8-2): 55.9%
- Tulane (5-1, 8-2): 57.9%
- East Carolina (5-1, 6-3): 16.0%
- South Florida (4-2, 7-3): 8.2%
- Memphis (4-3, 8-3): 0.01%
- UTSA (3-3, 5-5): 0.01%
In terms of scenarios for the conference, the following one is key to remember, with the caveat that The American uses the rankings of the CFP Selection Committee as its second tiebreaker and a combination of analytics as its third tiebreaker, making it difficult to state how these scenarios may play out definitively.
If North Texas, Tulane, Navy, and East Carolina all win their remaining games, our scenarios project that Tulane makes the Championship Game in 91.7% of scenarios, Navy in 74.6%, North Texas in 25%, and East Carolina in 8.6%.
North Texas’s The American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives North Texas a 62.6%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Rice (2-4, 5-5) and vs. Temple (3-3, 5-5).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, North Texas can make the American Conference Championship Game in 68.7%.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring North Texas are:
1) vs. Navy: 30.4% of scenarios
2) vs. Tulane: 17.0% of scenarios
3) vs. East Carolina: 7.7% of scenarios
Tulane’s The American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Tulane a 57.9%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. Florida Atlantic (3-4, 4-6), at Temple (3-3, 5-5), and vs. Charlotte (0-7, 1-9).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, Tulane can make the American Conference Championship Game in 42.8%.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring Tulane are:
1) vs. Navy: 21.1% of scenarios
2) vs. North Texas: 17.0% of scenarios
3) vs. East Carolina: 4.1% of scenarios
South Florida’s The American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives South Florida an 8.2%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at UAB (1-5, 3-7) and vs. Rice (2-4, 5-5).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, South Florida can make the American Conference Championship Game in 8.7%.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring South Florida are:
1) vs. Navy: 6.2% of scenarios
2) vs. North Texas: 1.4% of scenarios
3) vs. Tulane: 0.6% of scenarios
Navy’s The American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Navy a 55.2%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Memphis (4-3, 8-3).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, Navy can make the American Conference Championship Game in 56.6%.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring Navy are:
1) vs. North Texas: 33.8% of scenarios
2) vs. Tulane: 11.6% of scenarios
3) vs. South Florida: 8.3% of scenarios
Memphis’s The American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Memphis a 14.1%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Navy (6-1, 8-2).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, Memphis can make the American Conference Championship Game in 0.1%.
East Carolina’s The American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives East Carolina a 16.03%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at UTSA (3-3, 5-5), and at Florida Atlantic (3-4, 4-6).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, East Carolina can make the American Conference Championship Game in 23.0%.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring East Carolina are:
1) vs. Navy: 10.8% of scenarios
2) vs. North Texas: 7.7% of scenarios
3) vs. Tulane: 4.1% of scenarios
How Do the American Conference Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be used to determine who will advance to the American Conference Championship Game.
- The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
If there is no head-to-head, things vary depending on how many teams (if any) were ranked in the most recent CFP Selection Committee rankings before the final week of the season.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, they will win the tiebreaker.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and they lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, the higher-ranked team that does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play will win the tiebreaker.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and both lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If neither of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
If the teams remain tied after this process, the following tiebreakers are used:
1) Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
2) The team with the highest overall winning percentage, including both conference and non-conference games (excluding exempt games).
3) Coin toss.
The American Conference Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
If there is no head-to-head resolution, things vary depending on how many teams (if any) were ranked in the most recent CFP Selection Committee rankings before the final week of the season.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, they will win the tiebreaker.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and they lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, the higher-ranked team that does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play will win the tiebreaker.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and both lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If neither of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
If the teams remain tied after this process, the following tiebreakers are used:
1) Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
2) The team with the highest overall winning percentage, including both conference and non-conference games (excluding exempt games).
3) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in The American standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest The American Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
