Entering Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, Texas Tech is in a strong position when it comes to competing in the Big 12 Championship Game and taking part in the College Football Playoff. However, with six teams in the Big 12 having one or two losses entering Week 12, Texas Tech’s path to Arlington is taking shape, but they still have little room for error if they want to secure a spot in the playoffs.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Texas Tech’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Texas Tech a 99.4%Â chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at West Virginia (2-6, 4-7).
A win for Texas Tech this week puts them on the verge of clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. If BYU loses, Texas Tech will be in a position where they are one loss ahead of either four or five teams. However, they may still need to wait until the final week to clinch, and they may well need to win to do that.
If Texas Tech loses, then they lose control of their own destiny. Having already lost to Arizona State, the tiebreaker situation becomes complicated among the two-loss teams, even with Texas Tech having wins over Houston, BYU, and Utah.
A perfect scenario for Texas Tech would be BYU losing in Week 12 and then defeating Cincinnati in Week 13. Couple that with one loss for Arizona State in either Week 12 or Week 13, and Texas Tech would have a Big 12 Championship berth clinched.
While Arizona State and Cincinnati are at one or two losses, it complicates the picture for Texas Tech. That loss to Arizona State may not be a problem, but it would reduce their head-to-head dominance; however, Cincinnati’s presence would risk invalidating it entirely, given that Texas Tech and Cincinnati do not meet in 2025.
What are Texas Tech’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for Texas Tech: win the Big 12 Championship Game or be an at-large team. PFSN College FPM currently gives Texas Tech a 94.7% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations give Texas Tech a 99.4% chance of playing the Big 12 Championship Game and a 66.8% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship Game. That leaves them with a 27.9% chance of making the CFP as an at-large team.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Texas Tech as a top-four seed in 66.8% of simulations. That breaks down in the following way:
- #1 Seed: 0%
- #2 Seed: 0%
- #3 Seed: 66.2%
- #4 Seed: 0.02%
Our simulations also give Texas Tech a 44.8% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 21.2% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 9.7% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
