Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Texas A&M Aggies were undefeated and positioned in first place in the SEC. However, all that fell apart in Austin, as the Texas Longhorns threw an Arch Manning-shaped spanner into the Aggies’ postseason projections. What does it all mean?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Texas A&M’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Texas A&M a 65.1% chance of playing in the SEC Championship game ahead of their matchup with Texas. They had a win-and-in scenario and were the team most in control of their own destiny in the SEC.
However, the scares that came along the way — the Aggies’ recent comeback victory over South Carolina being the most recent example — reared their ugly head on Friday night, as Mike Elko’s team’s unbeaten record came undone under the bright Austin lights.
There had been reason to doubt this Texas A&M team. They have no wins against currently-ranked SEC opponents, with their only statement win coming against Notre Dame in non-conference play. Against Auburn, LSU, and South Carolina, they won only by one possession.
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Until now, when the Aggies have needed to deliver, they have closed out games and rebounded from early adversity.
Yet they couldn’t secure a place in the SEC Championship game, falling to a loss that eliminated them from SEC Championship Game contention. An Ole Miss win earlier in the day had complicated matters a little, but it was the Aggies’ loss to the Longhorns that was the nail in the coffin.
What are Texas A&M’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team.
After losing to Texas, one of those options no longer exists for the Aggies. They can’t play for the SEC Championship Game, and therefore, they can’t receive an auto-bid. They’re well-positioned for an At-Large bid after entering Week 14 as the third-ranked team in the College Football Playoff rankings.
The PFSN College FPM gives Texas A&M a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff. The question is how far they can go.
Our simulations also give Texas A&M a 31.0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 14.7% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 7.2% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
