Entering Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, the Texas A&M Aggies control their own destiny as they near the SEC Championship game and the CFB Playoffs. But where do they stand in relation to other SEC challengers, and what more do they need to do?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Texas A&M’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Texas A&M a 66.3%Â chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. The Aggies have one conference game remaining at Texas (7-3, 4-2). The PFSN College FPM has them winning out in 60.3% of simulations.
For the Aggies, it’s simple: Beat Texas, and you’re in the title game. Lose, and you risk being shut out by Alabama and Georgia, or Ole Miss — but only if Alabama loses to Auburn.
If Texas A&M loses to Texas and all other SEC contenders win, Alabama will have the one-loss tiebreaker over the Aggies by way of SEC opponent winning percentage. Georgia will also have the tiebreaker over Texas A&M on account of common opponents; Georgia crushed Texas 35-10 just last week.
Texas A&M’s game against Texas is the team’s toughest SEC test yet in 2025. In fact, the Aggies’ SEC slate has been abnormally weak in 2025. To this point, the Aggies’ most difficult win was their comeback victory against now 3-7 South Carolina. Before that, it was their 16-10 win over now 4-6 Auburn.
The Aggies have only played one ranked SEC school in 2025, and even then, it was the Missouri Tigers with their backup quarterback in his first career start.
We’re not saying Texas A&M is on fraud watch; the Aggies beat a fellow CFB Playoff contender in Notre Dame back in September. But there’s still more for Texas A&M to prove, and Texas won’t give them an easy out with Arch Manning starting to find his stride.
It’s fitting that Texas A&M is playing Texas to close out the year, because in 2024, the situation was inversed. Texas was 10-1 and vying to lock in SEC title game standing. Texas A&M was 8-3 and outside the fringe. Texas won that game handily. Texas A&M will aim to flip the script in 2025. If they win, they’re in — but they’re in the CFB Playoffs either way.
What are Texas A&M’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team.
The PFSN College FPM gives Texas A&M a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the SEC Championship Game in 66.3% of simulations, and win the conference in 36.4% of simulations. That leaves 63.6% of simulations that feature Texas A&M as an At-Large team.
Texas A&M is currently ranked 3rd in the CFP Selection Committee rankings — safely in range to secure an At-Large bid even if they lose the SEC Championship or miss out on the big game.
Our simulations also give Texas A&M a 46.81% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 23.45% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 11.58% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
17 – 7 isn’t winning handily. If they had Moss, the score would have been closer.