The presumed frontrunner in the race for the College Football Playoff following the second rankings release, the South Florida Bulls came unstuck somewhat in Week 12. A loss following a barn-burner against the Navy Midshipmen has completely changed the makeup of their postseason adventure, and Alex Golesh’s team faces an uphill battle moving forward.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine South Florida’s chances of making it to the American Conference Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff following their Week 12 defeat to Navy.
South Florida’s The American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives South Florida an 8.2%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at UAB (1-5, 3-7) and vs. Rice (2-4, 5-5).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, South Florida can make the American Conference Championship Game in 8.7%.
The loss to Navy has changed everything for South Florida. Previously, they were a virtual lock to make it into The American Championship Game if they won out, but that is not the case anymore. Of the scenarios where South Florida wins out, which we project them to do 51.2% of the time, they make the Championship Game in 38.3%.
However, The American uses the CFP Selection Committee rankings as its second tiebreaker and then a set of analytics as its third, which makes the exact tiebreaker formula hard to calculate.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring South Florida are:
1) vs. Navy: 6.2% of scenarios
2) vs. North Texas: 1.4% of scenarios
3) vs. Tulane: 0.6% of scenarios
What are South Florida’s Playoff Chances?
As the only Group of Five team featured in the Week 12 edition of the College Football Playoff rankings, South Florida appeared to have a clear path to the postseason tournament. Win out. Win the American Conference Championship. Win the right to play meaningful football in late December. The percentage chance should have reflected that, right?
Well, in the words of the late, great Lee Corso, “not so fast, my friend.” Even before their slugfest loss to Navy in Week 12, there was no certainty for South Florida in the College Football Playoff race. The five non-Power Four conferences are essentially competing for one spot in the 12-team tournament, although the rules state that every team has an equal right to the playoff.
At best, they’re competing for two spots, but given the first two rankings releases, it would appear that the College Football Playoff Selection Committee doesn’t value the Group of Five teams that highly, rejecting them completely in Week 11 and only including the Bulls in Week 12. As such, that reduces the chances and ensures a convoluted path to the postseason.
To be eligible for a spot in the College Football Playoff, South Florida must first win The American. Losing to Navy, as we’ve already discussed, has seriously harmed that projection. As such, our FPM gives them a 5.3% chance of winning The American and a 2.5% chance of making it into the College Football Playoff.
In terms of where they would fit into the playoff if they make it, South Florida is the No. 12 seed in all 8.2% of simulations where they make the playoff. That means they would travel to face the No. 5 seed in the First Round of the playoff.
Our simulations give South Florida a 0.06% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.02% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a <0.01% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
