After a win in Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, SMU remains in the mix when it comes to the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With six teams still alive in the ACC, SMU’s playoff chances have improved with the win, but their scenarios require help from elsewhere.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine SMU’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
SMU’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives SMU a 45.8%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Cal. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 61.4% of simulations.
With a Week 14 win, SMU gives itself a 60% chance of making the ACC Championship Game in our simulations. However, that drops to just 20% if Georgia Tech wins in Week 13 and just under 8% if Virginia wins in Week 14.
If Georgia Tech, Virginia, and SMU win their remaining games, then SMU needs help from Miami and Wake Forest to make the ACC Championship Game. They would need Miami to win their final games and Wake Forest to beat Duke in Week 14.
If any of those three results go in a different direction, then Virginia will have the tiebreaker over them when it comes to conference strength of schedule. This exact set of results ties Virginia and SMU in the tiebreaker, meaning that it will come down to which team is rated higher in SportsSource’s Team Rating Score.
If Pitt beats Georgia Tech this week, then SMU would be guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a Week 14 win. All the tiebreakers with Pittsburgh would fall in favor of SMU, regardless of whether Virginia joins them at 7-1 in Week 14.
There is a very small chance that SMU will make the ACC Championship Game if it loses next week. However, their chances of making it are just 6% if they fall to Cal.
What are SMU’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. The PFSN College FPM gives SMU a 20.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the ACC Championship Game in 45.8% of simulations, and win the conference in 20.9% of simulations. That leaves them with a <0.01% chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.
SMU is currently not ranked by the CFP Selection Committee. That makes it challenging for them to earn an “At-Large” bid because the only way to climb into the top 10, where they would need to be, would be by winning out and getting a lot of help. Sitting at 8-3 overall in the relatively weak ACC makes it close to impossible for SMU to be considered as an At-Large team unless a crazy collection of results plays out.
If SMU makes it into the playoff as the ACC Champion, their range of potential seeds spreads from No. 5 to No. 11, depending on how other results fall. We also do not know how the committee may view a conference championship in relation to other factors, which could also play a significant role in how they are seeded.
Our simulations also give SMU a 2.6% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.9% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.27% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
