We’re on the home stretch on the path to the SEC Championship, and the picture is becoming much clearer, as to which teams will be in attendance, and which teams will have to watch from home. The SEC has never been more competitive — but three teams are the front runners to earn a place in the title game.
Who’s in? Who’s out? And how does the path to the SEC Championship Game play out as the remaining games unfold?
SEC Championship Game Probabilities
The SEC has been very competitive in 2025, with just one team still undefeated — courtesy of an improbable second-half comeback against a sub-.500 opponent.
Just four of the 16 teams in the SEC are still mathematically in the hunt for a seat at the SEC Championship game. From there, Alabama and Texas A&M have the best chance of facing off, but Georgia is still firmly in the mix, and Ole Miss has Cinderella potential.
Below, we’ve outlined each remaining contender according to their percentage chance, both for making the conference title game and winning the conference title game.
All data comes from the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
- Georgia: 77%
- Texas A&M: 62.9%
- Alabama: 48%
- Ole Miss: 12.1%
SEC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Texas A&M: 36.4%
- Alabama: 35.6%
- Georgia: 25%
- Ole Miss: 6.7%
Ole Miss is a longshot to make the SEC Championship game, and needs a lot of help from its counterparts in the conversation, but the Rebels nonetheless still have a chance.
The primary contenders to make the game are Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, but if Georgia makes the contest against either Texas A&M or Alabama, the FPM favors the opponent of Georgia to come away with the victory.
Either way, another close, hotly-contested SEC title matchup seems inevitable, and the next few weeks will be must-watch football.
Latest SEC Standings
1) Texas A&M Aggies 10-0 (7-0)
2) Georgia Bulldogs 9-1 (7-1)
3) Ole Miss Rebels 10-1 (6-1)
4) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (6-1)
5) Texas Longhorns 7-3 (4-2)
6) Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (4-2)
7) Vanderbilt Commodores 8-2 (4-2)
8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
9) Tennessee Volunteers 7-3 (3-3)
10) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-4)
11) Kentucky Wildcats 5-5 (2-5)
12) Florida Gators 3-7 (2-5)
13) Mississippi State Bulldogs 5-6 (1-6)
14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-6)
15) South Carolina Gamecocks 3-7 (1-7)
16) Arkansas Razorbacks 2-8 (0-6)
Georgia’s SEC Championship Road Map
Georgia has a head-to-head loss against Alabama, so as long as Alabama beats Auburn and Texas A&M beats Texas, the Aggies and the Crimson Tide will be in the SEC Championship game over the Bulldogs.
That said, if the Bulldogs get help from either Texas or Auburn in besting their opponents for title real estate, Georgia can sneak into the big game, since they’re locked in at one loss in-conference.
- vs. Charlotte
- at Georgia Tech
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Road Map
It’s simple for Texas A&M: Win and you’re in. If the Aggies win out and stay undefeated in conference play, they’ll lock up one of the two SEC Championship spots.
If Texas A&M loses to Texas, however, the Aggies don’t have any head-to-head wins over Georgia, Ole Miss, or Alabama, and Georgia has a head-to-head win over Texas as a common opponent. Thus, with a loss, Texas A&M gets knocked out.
The Aggies’ destiny is in their own control, but it won’t be easy to get past Arch Manning and the Longhorns — who have improved noticeably since the start of the season.
- vs. Samford
- at Texas
Alabama’s SEC Championship Road Map
The simplest road ahead for Alabama is to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl next week. If the Crimson Tide can accomplish that, they’ll be in the SEC Championship game.
If Alabama loses, they’ll be out of the title showcase in favor of Georgia and Texas A&M. Regardless of the outcome of Texas A&M’s game against Texas, the Aggies will only have one loss at most.
Alabama hasn’t lost the Iron Bowl against Auburn since 2019, and Auburn is more vulnerable than they’ve been traditionally, as they’re coming off the recent firing of head coach Hugh Freeze. Alabama should be able to get it done, but rivalries can be unpredictable.
- vs. Eastern Illinois
- at Auburn
Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Road Map
First things first, Ole Miss has to beat Mississippi State in their final conference game. Then, the Rebels need a lot of help from their fellow SEC contenders.
For the Rebels to make it into the SEC Championship game, Alabama needs to lose to Auburn, and Texas A&M needs to lose to Texas. If both of those things happen while Ole Miss wins out, the Rebels can secure a title showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs.
Ole Miss can’t beat out Georgia, as Georgia is already set with a one-loss final record in conference play and has a head-to-head win over Ole Miss.
- at Mississippi State
