Entering Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, Ole Miss remains in the mix when it comes to competing in the SEC Championship Game and taking part in the College Football Playoff. However, with up to six teams still in contention in the SEC, there are plenty of permutations that could play out over the final three weeks.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ole Miss’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Ole Miss’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ole Miss a 3.5% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. Florida (2-4, 3-6) and at Mississippi State (1-5, 5-5).
Out of 8,196 potential scenarios remaining in the SEC, Ole Miss can make the SEC Championship Game in 4.7%.
Ole Miss will be eliminated from SEC Championship Game contention if Georgia beats Texas this week. They also need Alabama to lose to Auburn or Texas to beat Texas A&M in Week 14.
If Ole Miss wins out, they should be locked in to make the College Football Playoff and potentially have a home game in the First Round.
What are Ole Miss’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for Ole Miss: win the SEC Championship Game or be an at-large team. PFSN College FPM currently gives Ole Miss a 93.7% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations give Ole Miss a 3.5% chance of playing the SEC Championship Game and a 1.5% chance of winning the SEC Championship Game. That leaves them with a 92.2% chance of making the CFP as an at-large team.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Ole Miss as a top-four seed in just 3.5% of simulations.
That breaks down in the following way:
- #1 Seed: 0.17%
- #2 Seed: 1.36%
- #3 Seed: 0.01%
- #4 Seed: 1.94%
Our simulations also give Ole Miss a 26.2% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 12.7% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 5.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
