Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Ohio State Buckeyes are projected to be near the top of the College Football Playoff field. Where do they stand in the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ohio State’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Ohio State’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Ohio State a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Ohio State is currently ranked 1st in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 12-0 overall and 9-0 in conference play.
After the Buckeyes’ dominant 27-9 win over Michigan in Week 14, Ohio State has clinched not only an undefeated regular season but also a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the upcoming CFB Playoffs.
No matter what the outcome of the Big Ten Championship is, Ohio State will have a first-round bye as one of just two undefeated teams remaining in the field. In fact, the Big Ten title clash between Ohio State and Indiana is effectively a battle for the top overall Playoff seed.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
According to the PFSN College FPM, Ohio State has a 56.7% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship over Indiana, and thus a 56.7% chance of taking home the top overall seed in the CFB Playoffs.
If the Buckeyes lose against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship showcase, there’s a 16.6% chance they’ll earn the 3-seed, and a 26.7% chance they’ll earn the 4-seed. The final order ultimately depends on the outcomes of the SEC and Big 12 Championship games.
Regardless of what happens from this point onward, Ryan Day’s squad is in an enviable position. They’ll have a first-round bye automatically in the CFB Playoffs, and they have a good chance to draw a favorable matchup in the second round.
In truth, most matchups will prove to be favorable for the Buckeyes, who are arguably the most complete team in the nation. Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate anchor an explosive offense, while the defense is overrun with early-round NFL Draft talent — a cast headlined by Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs.
If Ohio State beats Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, they’ll be locked into the 1-seed. But if they lose, they still have favorable Playoff positioning and a potential National Championship run to look forward to.
Our simulations give Ohio State a 62.5% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 38.6% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 23.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
