After a win in Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, North Texas remains in the mix when it comes to the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With five teams still alive in The American, North Texas’s playoff chances hinge on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine North Texas’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
North Texas’s American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives North Texas a 66.6%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Rice and vs. Temple. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 45.1% of simulations.
North Texas’s scenarios are challenging to predict at this point. Ideally, for them, they win out and no one other than Navy does, then they host the Championship Game thanks to a head-to-head victory over Navy a few weeks ago. However, assuming at least one other team joins them at 7-1, it will depend on whether any of the teams are ranked by the CFP Selection Committee entering Week 14.
With no head-to-head matchup against Tulane, they would rely on the next step of the tiebreaker. The highest-ranked team (if any are ranked) in The American who wins in Week 14 wins any tiebreaker scenario. Therefore, if North Texas were ranked 25 and Tulane were ranked 23, and no one else was ranked, and both won in Week 14, North Texas would play Tulane in New Orleans.
In the scenario where no team is ranked, whether it is 7-1, 6-2, or 5-3, it would depend on which team has the highest combined ranking across the four analytics companies. This is currently unknown, making it difficult to predict how this scenario would unfold if multiple unranked teams were tied.
If North Texas loses its remaining game, it will need either Navy or Tulane to lose to secure a spot in the conference championship.
What are North Texas’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough. However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives North Texas an 10.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make The American Championship Game in 66.6% of simulations, and win the conference in 25.5% of simulations.
North Texas is currently not ranked in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. The only Group of Five team to be ranked is Tulane, which North Texas may well have to beat in the American Championship Game. If they do that, they may well earn themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The unknown in all of this is how the CFP Selection Committee views James Madison, who, like North Texas, has a 9-1 record and is set to contest the Sun Belt Championship Game. Based on what we have seen so far in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, The American is viewed as the superior conference to the Sun Belt.
If North Texas is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 seed in the first round.
Our simulations also give North Texas a 0.67% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.16% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.04% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
