After another win in Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, North Texas (5-1, 9-1) remains firmly in the mix when it comes to competing in the American Conference Championship Game and potentially taking part in the College Football Playoff. However, with six teams in The American having one or two losses entering Week 12 and a further four having three losses, North Texas’s path to the Championship Game is convoluted.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine North Texas’s chances of making it to the American Conference Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
North Texas’s The American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives North Texas a 62.6%Â chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Rice (2-4, 5-5) and vs. Temple (3-3, 5-5).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, North Texas can make the American Conference Championship Game in 68.7%.
In our simulations, North Texas wins its two remaining games 44.2% of the time. If they do that, they make the American Conference Championship Game in every one of our scenarios where that occurs. However, The American uses the CFP Selection Committee rankings as its second tiebreaker and then a set of analytics as its third, which makes the exact tiebreaker formula hard to calculate.
There are also scenarios where even if they do not win both of their remaining games, they still make the Championship Game, but that will depend on how the American Conference tiebreakers fall.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring North Texas are:
1) vs. Navy: 30.4% of scenarios
2) vs. Tulane: 17.0% of scenarios
3) vs. East Carolina: 7.7% of scenarios
What are North Texas’s Playoff Chances?
The playoff situation for North Texas is not clear-cut because the Group of 5 conferences are only guaranteed one spot and are likely to receive only one place in 2025. Right now, The American is believed to be the conference with the best chance of taking that spot, with James Madison from the Sun Belt being the only real challenger in most people’s eyes.
To be eligible for a spot in the College Football Playoff, North Texas must first win The American. Currently, our FPM gives them a 35.0% chance of winning The American and a 18.4% chance of making it into the College Football Playoff.
Entering Week 12, the only Group of 5 team for which we had a clear idea of their standing in the eyes of the CFP Selection Committee is South Florida, which was ranked No. 24 this past week. That ranking suggests The American is the frontrunner in the Group of 5, but behind South Florida, we do not know for sure how the other teams stack up against James Madison or teams from the Mountain West in the committee’s eyes.
In terms of where they would fit into the playoff if they make it, North Texas is the No. 12 seed in all the simulations where they make it. That means they would travel to face the No. 5 seed in the First Round of the playoff.
Our simulations give North Texas a 0.9% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.24% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.05% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
