Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the North Texas Mean Green have a chance to make the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the hunt to make the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine North Texas’ chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are North Texas’ CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives North Texas a 38.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff. North Texas is currently ranked 24th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 11-1 overall and 7-1 in conference play.
One could make an argument that North Texas has a better track record than Tulane, despite being ranked lower. North Texas has a better overall record, and their only loss came against a South Florida team that was in the conversation for the Group of Six Playoff bid for much of the year. Tulane, however, tested themselves more.
North Texas head coach Eric Morris has already accepted an offer to become the next head coach of the Oklahoma State Cowboys following Mike Gundy’s dismissal, but Morris isn’t leaving his team in the midst of a potential Playoff run. He’ll remain on the sidelines for North Texas in the American Conference Championship, as will Jon Sumrall for Tulane.
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The PFSN College FPM gives North Texas a 38.8% chance of beating Tulane in the American Conference title game, and thus making the CFB Playoffs. If the Mean Green come out on top over the Green Wave, they’ll earn either the 11-seed or 12-seed in the CFB Playoff field.
PFSN’s College FPM gives North Texas a 14% chance of earning the 11-seed, and a 24.8% chance of earning the 12-seed. For the Mean Green to earn the 11-seed instead of the 12-seed, Duke would have to beat Virginia in the ACC Championship game.
If North Texas gets the 11-seed, they could play either Georgia, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M in the 6-11 matchup. If North Texas gets the 12-seed, they’d likely face one of Oregon, Ole Miss, or Alabama.
The trump card for the Mean Green has been their offense — led by redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker and freshman running back Caleb Hawkins. Under Morris’ oversight, Mestemaker has been one of the best QBs in college football, with 3,835 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just four interceptions in 12 games.
Having the superior offensive firepower could prove to be the difference if North Texas comes away with the victory over Tulane, but they’ll face a stingy Green Wave defense with potential NFL talent at multiple levels.
Our simulations give North Texas a 0.5% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.3% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.01% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
