After a win in Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, North Texas remains in the mix when it comes to the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With three teams still alive in The American, North Texas’s playoff chances hinge on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine North Texas’s chances of making it to the American Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
North Texas’s American Championship Game Chances
Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective American Conference Championship Game chances:
- North Texas (7-1, 11-1): 100%
- Tulane (6-1, 8-2): 86.3%
- Navy (7-1, 9-2): 13.7%
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives North Texas a 100% chance of playing in the American Championship Game.
The reason for that is that even if Tulane also wins, Tulane would win the three-way tiebreaker courtesy of being the highest-ranked team from the conference in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. Then the tiebreaker would revert to the top for a two-way tiebreaker between North Texas and Navy, which North Texas would win due to its head-to-head victory over Navy earlier in the year.
If Tulane loses, North Texas will host the American Championship Game at DATCU Stadium in Denton.
What are North Texas’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough. However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives North Texas a 16.0% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make The American Championship Game in 100% of simulations, and win the conference in 46% of simulations.
North Texas is currently not ranked in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. The only Group of Five team to be ranked is Tulane, which North Texas may well have to beat in the American Championship Game. If they do that, they may earn themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The unknown in all of this is how the CFP Selection Committee views James Madison, who has an 11-1 record and is set to contest the Sun Belt Championship Game. Based on what we have seen so far in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, The American is viewed as the superior conference to the Sun Belt. North Texas is 10-1, with its only loss coming against South Florida, which the committee had ranked two weeks ago.
If North Texas is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 seed in the first round.
Our simulations also give North Texas a 0.6% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.2% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.05% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.